相关论文: A Bayesian Residual-Based Test for Cointegration

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the Sorting…

The ubiquity of multiscale interactions in complex systems is well-recognized, with development and heredity serving as a prime example of how processes at different temporal scales influence one another. This work introduces a novel…

One central goal of design of observational studies is to embed non-experimental data into an approximate randomized controlled trial using statistical matching. Despite empirical researchers' best intention and effort to create…

Recurrent event data are common in clinical studies when participants are followed longitudinally, and are often subject to a terminal event. With the increasing popularity of large pragmatic trials with a heterogeneous source population,…

We introduce methods and theory for fractionally cointegrated curve time series. We develop a variance-ratio test to determine the dimensions associated with the nonstationary and stationary subspaces. For each subspace, we apply a local…

We describe a methodology for modeling the performance of decision-level data fusion between different sensor configurations, implemented as part of the JIEDDO Analytic Decision Engine (JADE). We first discuss a Bayesian network formulation…

A Bayes factor is proposed for testing whether the effect of a key predictor variable on the dependent variable is linear or nonlinear, possibly while controlling for certain covariates. The test can be used (i) when one is interested in…

In this paper, we introduce the notion of Gaussian processes indexed by probability density functions for extending the Mat\'ern family of covariance functions. We use some tools from information geometry to improve the efficiency and the…

We present a test for independence of two strictly stationary time series based on a bootstrap procedure for the distance covariance. Our test detects any kind of dependence between the two time series within an arbitrary maximum lag $L$.…

Optimal design is a critical yet challenging task within many applications. This challenge arises from the need for extensive trial and error, often done through simulations or running field experiments. Fortunately, sequential optimal…

With rapid development of techniques to measure brain activity and structure, statistical methods for analyzing modern brain-imaging play an important role in the advancement of science. Imaging data that measure brain function are usually…

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Motivated by distinct walking patterns in real-world free-living gait data, this paper proposes an innovative curve-based sampling scheme for the analysis of functional data characterized by a mixture of covariance structures. Traditional…

We consider the problem of analyzing multivariate time series collected on multiple subjects, with the goal of identifying groups of subjects exhibiting similar trends in their recorded measurements over time as well as time-varying groups…

The Bayesian evidence is a key tool in model selection, allowing a comparison of models with different numbers of parameters. Its use in analysis of cosmological models has been limited by difficulties in calculating it, with current…

In this paper we present a novel inference methodology to perform Bayesian inference for spatiotemporal Cox processes where the intensity function depends on a multivariate Gaussian process. Dynamic Gaussian processes are introduced to…

Clustering is widely studied in statistics and machine learning, with applications in a variety of fields. As opposed to classical algorithms which return a single clustering solution, Bayesian nonparametric models provide a posterior over…

Gaussian processes are arguably the most important class of spatiotemporal models within machine learning. They encode prior information about the modeled function and can be used for exact or approximate Bayesian learning. In many…

Peer grading systems aggregate noisy reports from multiple students to approximate a true grade as closely as possible. Most current systems either take the mean or median of reported grades; others aim to estimate students' grading…