相关论文: A study of gravity-linked metapopulation models fo…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In…
Built environment supports all the daily activities and shapes our health. Leveraging informative street view imagery, previous research has established the profound correlation between the built environment and chronic, non-communicable…
Metapopulation models are commonly used in ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. These models usually entail homogeneity assumptions within patches and study networks of migration between patches to generate insights into conservation of…
Vector-borne epidemics are the result of the combination of different factors such as the crossed contagions between humans and vectors, their demographic distribution and human mobility among others. The current availability of information…
The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complex spatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced…
Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, continues to pose a persistent public health challenge in urban areas, particularly in tropical regions such as Singapore. Effective and affordable control requires anticipating where transmission risks are…
After their re-emergence in the last decades, dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases are a potential threat to the lives of millions of people. Based on a data set of dengue cases in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, collected from…
In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world. In several regions dengue re-emerged, particularly in Latin America, where dengue cases not only increased but also occurred more frequently. It is therefore…
Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease mostly endemic to tropical and subtropical countries that affect millions every year and is considered a significant burden for public health. Its geographic distribution makes it highly sensitive to…
In 2015 the US federal government sponsored a dengue forecasting competition using historical case data from Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Competitors were evaluated on several aspects of out-of-sample forecasts including the…
Urbanization drives the epidemiology of infectious diseases to many threats and new challenges. In this research, we study the interplay between human mobility and dengue outbreaks in the complex urban environment of the city-state of…
Supervised machine learning models and public surveillance data has been employed for infectious disease forecasting in many settings. These models leverage various data sources capturing drivers of disease spread, such as climate…
A two-patch mathematical model of Dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that accounts for vectors' vertical transmission and between patches human dispersal is introduced. Dispersal is modeled via a Lagrangian approach. A host-patch residence-times…
Recent outbreaks of Ebola and Dengue viruses have again elevated the significance of the capability to quickly predict disease spread in an emergent situation. However, existing approaches usually rely heavily on the time-consuming census…
We investigate the spatial organization of dengue cases in the city of Recife, Brazil, from 2015 to 2024, using tools from statistical physics and topological data analysis. Reported cases are modeled as point clouds in a metric space, and…
The global population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika is expanding. Infectious disease models commonly incorporate environmental measures like temperature and precipitation. Given…
We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…
The propagation of infectious diseases and its impact on individuals play a major role in disease dynamics, and it is important to incorporate population heterogeneity into efforts to study diseases. As a simplistic but illustrative…
The objective of this study was to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic and social-ecological risk factors associated with the largest dengue epidemic to date in Machala, Ecuador, to inform the development of a dengue EWS.…