相关论文: Failure of Calibration is Typical

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…

It is argued that the Calibrated Bayesian (CB) approach to statistical inference capitalizes on the strength of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to statistical inference. In the CB approach, inferences under a particular model are…

A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two…

Optimizing proper loss functions is popularly believed to yield predictors with good calibration properties; the intuition being that for such losses, the global optimum is to predict the ground-truth probabilities, which is indeed…

The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…

We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between…

We provide yet another proof of the existence of calibrated forecasters; it has two merits. First, it is valid for an arbitrary finite number of outcomes. Second, it is short and simple and it follows from a direct application of…

Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as…

The problem is that of sequential probability forecasting for finite-valued time series. The data is generated by an unknown probability distribution over the space of all one-way infinite sequences. It is known that this measure belongs to…

Analyzing classification model performance is a crucial task for machine learning practitioners. While practitioners often use count-based metrics derived from confusion matrices, like accuracy, many applications, such as weather…

Accurate trajectory prediction is critical for safe autonomous navigation in crowded environments. While many trajectory predictors output Gaussian distributions to represent the multi-modal distribution over future pedestrian positions,…

We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often…

Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable prediction with machine learning systems. Calibration error is…

Recommender systems utilize users' historical data to learn and predict their future interests, providing them with suggestions tailored to their tastes. Calibration ensures that the distribution of recommended item categories is consistent…

Calibration refers to the statistical estimation of unknown model parameters in computer experiments, such that computer experiments can match underlying physical systems. This work develops a new calibration method for imperfect computer…

There are many practical difficulties in the calibration of computer models to experimental data. One such complication is the fact that certain combinations of the calibration inputs can cause the code to output data lacking fundamental…

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

The analysis of experimental data with mixed-effects models requires decisions about the specification of the appropriate random-effects structure. Recently, Barr, Levy, Scheepers, and Tily, 2013 recommended fitting `maximal' models with…

While considerable advance has been made to account for statistical uncertainties in astronomical analyses, systematic instrumental uncertainties have been generally ignored. This can be crucial to a proper interpretation of analysis…

Ensuring that classifiers are well-calibrated, i.e., their predictions align with observed frequencies, is a minimal and fundamental requirement for classifiers to be viewed as trustworthy. Existing methods for assessing multiclass…