相关论文: A simple hierarchical Bayesian model for simultane…

We describe a Bayesian model for social learning of a random variable in which agents might observe each other over a directed network. The outcomes produced are compared to those from a model in which observations occur randomly over a…

We study a setting where Bayesian agents with a common prior have private information related to an event's outcome and sequentially make public announcements relating to their information. Our main result shows that when agents' private…

Conventional noncooperative game theory hypothesizes that the joint strategy of a set of players in a game must satisfy an "equilibrium concept". All other joint strategies are considered impossible; the only issue is what equilibrium…

We study biased {\em orientation games}, in which the board is the complete graph $K_n$, and Maker and Breaker take turns in directing previously undirected edges of $K_n$. At the end of the game, the obtained graph is a tournament. Maker…

Various social dilemma games that follow different strategy updating rules have been studied on many networks.The reported results span the entire spectrum, from significantly boosting,to marginally affecting,to seriously decreasing the…

We study the correspondence between Bayesian Networks and graphical representation of proofs in linear logic. The goal of this paper is threefold: to develop a proof-theoretical account of Bayesian inference (in the spirit of the…

We explore a new way to evaluate generative models using insights from evaluation of competitive games between human players. We show experimentally that tournaments between generators and discriminators provide an effective way to evaluate…

Network inference is the process of deciding what is the true unknown graph underlying a set of interactions between nodes. There is a vast literature on the subject, but most known methods have an important drawback: the inferred graph is…

This report investigates the optimal design of event-triggered estimation for first-order linear stochastic systems. The problem is posed as a two-player team problem with a partially nested information pattern. The two players are given by…

We study the problem of non-Bayesian social learning with uncertain models, in which a network of agents seek to cooperatively identify the state of the world based on a sequence of observed signals. In contrast with the existing…

In many scenarios, the observational data needed for causal inferences are spread over two data files. In particular, we consider scenarios where one file includes covariates and the treatment measured on one set of individuals, and a…

Bayesian inference on structured models typically relies on the ability to infer posterior distributions of underlying hidden variables. However, inference in implicit models or complex posterior distributions is hard. A popular tool for…

Probabilistic Graphical Bayesian models of causation have continued to impact on strategic analyses designed to help evaluate the efficacy of different interventions on systems. However, the standard causal algebras upon which these…

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…

The authors propose a parametric model called the arena model for prediction in paired competitions, i.e. paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The arena model has a number of appealing advantages. First, it predicts the…

Hypergraphs, encoding structured interactions among any number of system units, have recently proven a successful tool to describe many real-world biological and social networks. Here we propose a framework based on statistical inference to…

We consider the problem of estimating the topology of multiple networks from nodal observations, where these networks are assumed to be drawn from the same (unknown) random graph model. We adopt a graphon as our random graph model, which is…

Graphs are ubiquitous in modelling relational structures. Recent endeavours in machine learning for graph-structured data have led to many architectures and learning algorithms. However, the graph used by these algorithms is often…

Bayesian networks faithfully represent the symmetric conditional independences existing between the components of a random vector. Staged trees are an extension of Bayesian networks for categorical random vectors whose graph represents…

We develop an abstract axiomatic theory of tie-breaking. A tie-breaking input consists of a finite set N of players, a weak order on N representing the standings to be refined, and an auxiliary information item drawn from a set on which the…