相关论文: Why Do We Need Foundations for Modelling Uncertain…

To solve a real-world problem, the modeler usually needs to make a trade-off between model complexity and usefulness. This is also true for robust optimization, where a wide range of models for uncertainty, so-called uncertainty sets, have…

Advancements in LLMs have recently unveiled challenges tied to computational efficiency and continual scalability due to their requirements of huge parameters, making the applications and evolution of these models on devices with limited…

Universal shape profiles in a variety of systems contain crucial information on the underlying dynamics. We develop such shape profiles for earthquakes as a stronger test of theory against observations. The earthquake analysis shows good…

The existence of adversarial examples has led to considerable uncertainty regarding the trust one can justifiably put in predictions produced by automated systems. This uncertainty has, in turn, lead to considerable research effort in…

The adoption of machine learning (ML) components in software systems raises new engineering challenges. In particular, the inherent uncertainty regarding functional suitability and the operation environment makes architecture evaluation and…

Reliability (survival analysis, to biostatisticians) is a key ingredient for mak- ing decisions that mitigate the risk of failure. The other key ingredient is utility. A decision theoretic framework harnesses the two, but to invoke this…

In this paper, we mainly study the robust stability of linear continuous systems with parameter uncertainties, a more general kind of uncertainties for system matrices is considered, i.e., entries of system matrices are rational functions…

We consider a task of scheduling with a common deadline on a single machine. Every player reports to a scheduler the length of his job and the scheduler needs to finish as many jobs as possible by the deadline. For this simple problem,…

In this paper we characterise the propensity of big capital investments to systematically deliver poor outcomes as "fragility," a notion suggested by Nassim Taleb. A thing or system that is easily harmed by randomness is fragile. We argue…

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

Forecasts are typically not produced in a vacuum but in a business context, where forecasts are generated on a regular basis and interact with each other. For decisions, it may be important that forecasts do not change arbitrarily, and are…

In a Systems Engineering setting, various models are produced using a variety of methods and tools. Focusing on a type of models -- called descriptive models -- which we shall describe, we argue that, while the clarity and precision of…

The stability of dynamical systems against perturbations (variations in initial conditions/model parameters) is a property referred to as structural stability. The study of sensitivity to perturbation is essential because in experiment…

Research in cybersecurity may seem reactive, specific, ephemeral, and indeed ineffective. Despite decades of innovation in defense, even the most critical software systems turn out to be vulnerable to attacks. Time and again. Offense and…

Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…

Resilience is needed to make infrastructures fit for the future, but its operationalization is still lively discussed. Here, we identify three understandings of resilience from the existing literature: resilience as a process, an outcome,…

Modern data systems increasingly operate under conditions of persistent legal, political, and analytic disagreement. In such settings, interoperability cannot rely on shared interpretation, negotiated semantics, or centralized authority.…

Estimating uncertainty of machine learning models is essential to assess the quality of the predictions that these models provide. However, there are several factors that influence the quality of uncertainty estimates, one of which is the…

Fragility curves are commonly used in civil engineering to assess the vulnerability of structures to earthquakes. The probability of failure associated with a prescribed criterion (e.g. the maximal inter-storey drift of a building exceeding…

Our lives become increasingly dependent on safety- and security-critical systems, so formal techniques are advocated for engineering such systems. One of such techniques is validation obligations that enable formalizing requirements early…