相关论文: Adding a systematic uncertainty to the signal esti…

The incorporation of uncertainties to calculations of signal significance in planned experiments is an actual task. Several approaches to this problem are discussed. We present a procedure for taking into account the systematic uncertainty…

To properly estimate signal significance while accounting for both statistical and systematic uncertainties, we conducted a study to analyze the impact of typical systematic uncertainties, such as background shape, signal shape, and the…

Systematic uncertainties in high energy physics and astrophysics are often significant contributions to the overall uncertainty in a measurement, in many cases being comparable to the statistical uncertainties. However, consistent…

We present a procedure for calculating an upper limit on the number of signal events which incorporates the Poisson uncertainty in the background, estimated from control regions of one or two dimensions. For small number of signal events,…

Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect ("on" measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free…

The incorporation of systematic uncertainties into confidence interval calculations has been addressed recently in a paper by Conrad et al. (Physical Review D 67 (2003) 012002). In their work, systematic uncertainities in detector…

Searches for new astrophysical phenomena often involve several sources of non-random uncertainties which can lead to highly misleading results. Among these, model-uncertainty arising from background mismodelling can dramatically compromise…

Anomalies drive scientific discovery -- they are associated with the cutting edge of the research frontier, and thus typically exploit data in the low signal-to-noise regime. In astronomy, the prevalence of systematics --- both "known…

The proper choice of a measurement technique that minimizes systematic and random uncertainty is an essential part of experimental physics. These issues are difficult to teach in the introductory laboratory, though: because most experiments…

For decades researchers have studied the On/Off counting problem, where a measured rate consists of two parts. One due to a signal process and another due to a background process, of which both magnitudes are unknown. While most frequentist…

This paper presents a novel approach to estimate the Standard Model backgrounds based on modifying Monte Carlo predictions within their systematic uncertainties. The improved background model is obtained by altering the original predictions…

One way to incorporate systematic uncertainties into the calculation of confidence intervals is by integrating over probability density functions parametrizing the uncertainties. In this note we present a development of this method which…

Uncertainty quantification is a key part of astronomy and physics; scientific researchers attempt to model both statistical and systematic uncertainties in their data as best as possible, often using a Bayesian framework. Decisions might…

Signal estimation in the presence of background noise is a common problem in several scientific disciplines. An 'On/Off' measurement is performed when the background itself is not known, being estimated from a background control sample. The…

A typical experiment in high energy physics is considered. The result of the experiment is assumed to be a histogram consisting of bins or channels with numbers of corresponding registered events. The expected background and expected signal…

When a measurement of a physical quantity is reported, the total uncertainty is usually decomposed into statistical and systematic uncertainties. This decomposition is not only useful to understand the contributions to the total…

In response to an increasing availability of statistically rich observational data sets, the performance and applicability of traditional Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope analyses in the regime of systematically dominated measurement…

The goal of this paper is to review the main trends in the domain of uncertainty principles and localization, emphasize their mutual connections and investigate practical consequences. The discussion is strongly oriented towards, and…

This paper investigates methods for estimating uncertainty in semantic segmentation predictions derived from satellite imagery. Estimating uncertainty for segmentation presents unique challenges compared to standard image classification,…

The current precision on the CKM angle $\gamma$ is driven by averages of measurements from multiple final states and multiple experiments. As the next generation of experiments targets a total experimental precision on $\gamma$ less than…