相关论文: Cautious Propagation in Bayesian Networks

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Performing exact inference on Bayesian networks is known to be #P-hard. Typically approximate inference techniques are used instead to sample from the distribution on query variables given the values $e$ of evidence variables. Classically,…

Quasi-Bayesian theory uses convex sets of probability distributions and expected loss to represent preferences about plans. The theory focuses on decision robustness, i.e., the extent to which plans are affected by deviations in subjective…

We introduce semiparametric Bayesian networks that combine parametric and nonparametric conditional probability distributions. Their aim is to incorporate the advantages of both components: the bounded complexity of parametric models and…

Previous work on sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks has focused on single parameters, where the goal is to understand the sensitivity of queries to single parameter changes, and to identify single parameter changes that would enforce…

There is increasing interest in learning how human brain networks vary as a function of a continuous trait, but flexible and efficient procedures to accomplish this goal are limited. We develop a Bayesian semiparametric model, which…

As for other latent-variable problems, exact Bayesian analysis is typically not practicable for mixture problems and approximate methods have been developed. Variational Bayes tends to produce approximate posterior distributions for…

To investigate the robustness of the output probabilities of a Bayesian network, a sensitivity analysis can be performed. A one-way sensitivity analysis establishes, for each of the probability parameters of a network, a function expressing…

Equipping graph neural networks with a convolution operation defined in terms of a cellular sheaf offers advantages for learning expressive representations of heterophilic graph data. The most flexible approach to constructing the sheaf is…

Detecting rumors on social media is a very critical task with significant implications to the economy, public health, etc. Previous works generally capture effective features from texts and the propagation structure. However, the…

Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian…

We address the problem of uncertainty propagation in the discrete Fourier transform by modeling the fast Fourier transform as a factor graph. Building on this representation, we propose an efficient framework for approximate Bayesian…

We study a Bayesian persuasion setting in which a sender wants to persuade a critical mass of receivers by revealing partial information about the state to them. The homogeneous binary-action receivers are located on a communication…

Learning Bayesian networks is often cast as an optimization problem, where the computational task is to find a structure that maximizes a statistically motivated score. By and large, existing learning tools address this optimization problem…

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the…

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data provides insights into underlying processes and the causal relationships that generate the data, but its usefulness depends on the homogeneity of the data population, a condition often…

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully…

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…

Bayesian networks have been used as a mechanism to represent the joint distribution of multiple random variables in a flexible yet interpretable manner. One major challenge in learning the structure of a Bayesian network is how to model…