相关论文: Cautious Propagation in Bayesian Networks

As Bayesian networks are applied to larger and more complex problem domains, search for flexible modeling and more efficient inference methods is an ongoing effort. Multiply sectioned Bayesian networks (MSBNs) extend the HUGIN inference for…

We study Bayesian hypernetworks: a framework for approximate Bayesian inference in neural networks. A Bayesian hypernetwork $\h$ is a neural network which learns to transform a simple noise distribution, $p(\vec\epsilon) = \N(\vec 0,\mat…

We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can…

The efficiency of algorithms using secondary structures for probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks can be improved by exploiting independence relations induced by evidence and the direction of the links in the original network. In…

We propose a cautious Bayesian variable selection routine by investigating the sensitivity of a hierarchical model, where the regression coefficients are specified by spike and slab priors. We exploit the use of latent variables to…

Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to…

Variational inference provides approximations to the computationally intractable posterior distribution in Bayesian networks. A prominent medical application of noisy-or Bayesian network is to infer potential diseases given observed…

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…

Contagion processes are strongly linked to the network structures on which they propagate, and learning these structures is essential for understanding and intervention on complex network processes such as epidemics and (mis)information…

Current Bayesian net representations do not consider structure in the domain and include all variables in a homogeneous network. At any time, a human reasoner in a large domain may direct his attention to only one of a number of natural…

We show an alternative way of representing a Bayesian belief network by sensitivities and probability distributions. This representation is equivalent to the traditional representation by conditional probabilities, but makes dependencies…

We describe expectation propagation for approximate inference in dynamic Bayesian networks as a natural extension of Pearl s exact belief propagation.Expectation propagation IS a greedy algorithm, converges IN many practical cases, but NOT…

When a hybrid Bayesian network has conditionally deterministic variables with continuous parents, the joint density function for the continuous variables does not exist. Conditional linear Gaussian distributions can handle such cases when…

In statistical practice, whether a Bayesian or frequentist approach is used in inference depends not only on the availability of prior information but also on the attitude taken toward partial prior information, with frequentists tending to…

Comprehensible explanations of probabilistic reasoning are a prerequisite for wider acceptance of Bayesian methods in expert systems and decision support systems. A study of human reasoning under uncertainty suggests two different…

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data is known to be a computationally challenging, NP-hard problem. The literature has long investigated how to perform structure learning from data containing large numbers of variables,…

Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…

Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we…

Bayesian networks provide a method of representing conditional independence between random variables and computing the probability distributions associated with these random variables. In this paper, we extend Bayesian network structures to…

Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the…