相关论文: Why Is Diagnosis Using Belief Networks Insensitive…

Bayesian belief networks are bing increasingly used as a knowledge representation for diagnostic reasoning. One simple method for conducting diagnostic reasoning is to represent system faults and observations only. In this paper, we…

Background: Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that leverage Bayes' theorem to portray dependencies and cause-and-effect relationships between variables. These networks have gained prominence in the field of health…

Faithfulness is a common assumption in causal inference, often motivated by the fact that the faithful parameters of linear Gaussian and discrete Bayesian networks are typical, and the folklore belief that this should also hold for other…

Efficiently quantifying predictive uncertainty in medical images remains a challenge. While Bayesian neural networks (BNN) offer predictive uncertainty, they require substantial computational resources to train. Although Bayesian…

Deep Bayesian neural network has aroused a great attention in recent years since it combines the benefits of deep neural network and probability theory. Because of this, the network can make predictions and quantify the uncertainty of the…

One major impediment to the wider use of deep learning for clinical decision making is the difficulty of assigning a level of confidence to model predictions. Currently, deep Bayesian neural networks and sparse Gaussian processes are the…

Bayesian belief network learning algorithms have three basic components: a measure of a network structure and a database, a search heuristic that chooses network structures to be considered, and a method of estimating the probability tables…

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

We show an alternative way of representing a Bayesian belief network by sensitivities and probability distributions. This representation is equivalent to the traditional representation by conditional probabilities, but makes dependencies…

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

Application of deep neural networks to medical imaging tasks has in some sense become commonplace. Still, a "thorn in the side" of the deep learning movement is the argument that deep networks are prone to overfitting and are thus unable to…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive…

This paper studies how imprecision in noisy signals attenuates Bayesian updating toward the prior. This phenomenon is well-known under a normal prior and normal noise, where less precise signals yield posterior means closer to the prior…

Deep neural networks have outperformed existing machine learning models in various molecular applications. In practical applications, it is still difficult to make confident decisions because of the uncertainty in predictions arisen from…

Despite the promise of Convolutional neural network (CNN) based classification models for histopathological images, it is infeasible to quantify its uncertainties. Moreover, CNNs may suffer from overfitting when the data is biased. We show…

Probabilistic predictions from neural networks which account for predictive uncertainty during classification is crucial in many real-world and high-impact decision making settings. However, in practice most datasets are trained on…

A Bayesian Belief Network (BN) is a model of a joint distribution over a setof n variables, with a DAG structure to represent the immediate dependenciesbetween the variables, and a set of parameters (aka CPTables) to represent thelocal…

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…