相关论文: Probabilistic Inference in Influence Diagrams

Influence propagation in social networks has recently received large interest. In fact, the understanding of how influence propagates among subjects in a social network opens the way to a growing number of applications. Many efforts have…

Machine learning provides algorithms that can learn from data and make inferences or predictions on data. Bayesian networks are a class of graphical models that allow to represent a collection of random variables and their condititional…

Parameter estimation and associated uncertainty quantification is an important problem in dynamical systems characterized by ordinary differential equation (ODE) models that are often nonlinear. Typically, such models have analytically…

As models of cognition grow in complexity and number of parameters, Bayesian inference with standard methods can become intractable, especially when the data-generating model is of unknown analytic form. Recent advances in simulation-based…

This paper addresses the tradeoffs which need to be considered in reasoning using probabilistic network representations, such as Influence Diagrams (IDs). In particular, we examine the tradeoffs entailed in using Temporal Influence Diagrams…

Influence maximization in networks is a central problem in machine learning and causal inference, where an intervention on a subset of individuals triggers a diffusion process through the network. Existing approaches typically optimize…

This paper builds on recent developments in Bayesian network (BN) structure learning under the controversial assumption that the input variables are dependent. This assumption can be viewed as a learning constraint geared towards cases…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

The biased net paradigm was the first general and empirically tractable scheme for parameterizing complex patterns of dependence in networks, expressing deviations from uniform random graph structure in terms of latent ``bias events,''…

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Neural networks have achieved remarkable performance across various problem domains, but their widespread applicability is hindered by inherent limitations such as overconfidence in predictions, lack of interpretability, and vulnerability…

Improved computational power has enabled different disciplines to predict causal relationships among modeled variables using Bayesian network inference. While many alternative algorithms have been proposed to improve the efficiency and…

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

The membership inference problem for publicly released statistics from a private dataset is well-studied. When developing and formally analyzing attack strategies, however, the focus has been on attacks that model the population using only…

One of the most effective methods of channel pruning is to trim on the basis of the importance of each neuron. However, measuring the importance of each neuron is an NP-hard problem. Previous works have proposed to trim by considering the…

The efficiency of algorithms using secondary structures for probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks can be improved by exploiting independence relations induced by evidence and the direction of the links in the original network. In…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive…

Recent work on weighted model counting has been very successfully applied to the problem of probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks. The probability distribution is encoded into a Boolean normal form and compiled to a target language,…

Bayesian networks (BN) are probabilistic graphical models that enable efficient knowledge representation and inference. These have proven effective across diverse domains, including healthcare, bioinformatics and economics. The structure…