相关论文: Non-asymptotic confidence intervals for MCMC in pr…

MCMC methods are used in Bayesian statistics not only to sample from posterior distributions but also to estimate expectations. Underlying functions are most often defined on a continuous state space and can be unbounded. We consider a…

We assume a drift condition towards a small set and bound the mean square error of estimators obtained by taking averages along a single trajectory of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We use these bounds to construct fixed-width…

We study the error of reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximating the expectation of a function. Explicit error bounds with respect to different norms of the function are proven. By the estimation the well known…

The Nummellin's split chain construction allows to decompose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) trajectory into i.i.d. "excursions". RegenerativeMCMC algorithms based on this technique use a random number of samples. They have been proposed…

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

This paper addresses the key challenge of estimating the asymptotic covariance associated with the Markov chain central limit theorem, which is essential for visualizing and terminating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. We focus…

We consider quantile estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo and establish conditions under which the sampling distribution of the Monte Carlo error is approximately Normal. Further, we investigate techniques to estimate the associated…

Single-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulates realizations from a Markov chain to estimate expectations with the empirical average. The single-chain simulation is generally of considerable length and restricts many advantages of modern…

We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…

We establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the classical Maximal Likelihood Estimation of the transition matrix of a given Markov chain. Meanwhile, in the reversible case, we propose a new reversibility-preserving online Symmetric…

We prove explicit, i.e. non-asymptotic, error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The problem is to compute the expectation of a function f with respect to a measure {\pi}. Different convergence properties of Markov chains imply…

We address the problem of upper bounding the mean square error of MCMC estimators. Our analysis is nonasymptotic. We first establish a general result valid for essentially all ergodic Markov chains encountered in Bayesian computation and a…

We prove explicit, i.e., non-asymptotic, error bounds for Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis algorithm. The problem is to compute the expectation (or integral) of f with respect to a measure which can be given by a…

We prove explicit error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to compute expectations of functions with unbounded stationary variance. We assume that there is a $p\in(1,2)$ so that the functions have finite $L_p$-norm. For…

Let $\mathscr{P}(E)$ be the space of probability measures on a measurable space $(E,\mathcal{E})$. In this paper we introduce a class of nonlinear Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for simulating from a probability measure…

In the thesis we take the split chain approach to analyzing Markov chains and use it to establish fixed-width results for estimators obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures (MCMC). Theoretical results include necessary and…

We prove non-asymptotic error bounds for Sequential MCMC methods in the case of multimodal target distributions. Our bounds depend in an explicit way on upper bounds on relative densities, on constants associated with local mixing…

Use each of n exact samples as the initial state for a MCMC sampler run for m steps. We give confidence intervals for accuracy of estimators which are always valid and which, in certain settings, are almost as good as the intervals one…

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are commonly employed for estimating features of a target distribution, particularly for Bayesian inference. A fundamental challenge is determining when these simulations should stop. We consider…