相关论文: A Comprehensive Method for Solving Finite-State Se…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Sign-Perturbed Sum (SPS) is a powerful finite-sample system identification algorithm which can construct confidence regions for the true data generating system with exact coverage probabilities, for any finite sample size. SPS was developed…

Novel Monte Carlo methods to generate samples from a target distribution, such as a posterior from a Bayesian analysis, have rapidly expanded in the past decade. Algorithms based on Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs),…

In order to maintain the security of power system at an appropriate level and at low cost, it is essential to accurately assess the steady-state stability limits and power flow feasibility boundaries, i.e., the power system marginal states…

Simulating physical systems is a core component of scientific computing, encompassing a wide range of physical domains and applications. Recently, there has been a surge in data-driven methods to complement traditional numerical simulations…

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

In the development of stochastic integration and the theory of semimartingales, Markov processes have been a constant source of inspiration. Despite this historical interweaving, it turned out that semimartingales should be considered the…

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a flexible representation for real-world decision and control problems. However, POMDPs are notoriously difficult to solve, especially when the state and observation spaces are…

Advances in mobile computing technologies have made it possible to monitor and apply data-driven interventions across complex systems in real time. Markov decision processes (MDPs) are the primary model for sequential decision problems with…

Motivated by disease progression-related studies, we propose an estimation method for fitting general non-homogeneous multi-state Markov models. The proposal can handle many types of multi-state processes, with several states and various…

Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…

Stochastic model-predictive control (SMPC) has evolved to a powerful framework for the control of stochastic dynamical systems. SMPC utilizes a probabilistic uncertainty description to provide a systematic trade-off between the control…

Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov,…

Fluid flow simulation is a highly active area with applications in a wide range of engineering problems and interactive systems. Meshless methods like the Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) are a great alternative to deal efficiently with…

Large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) require planning algorithms with runtime independent of the number of states of the MDP. We consider the planning problem in MDPs using linear value function approximation with only weak…

Spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs) are probabilistic models for events occurring in continuous space and time. Real-world event data often exhibit intricate dependencies and heterogeneous dynamics. By incorporating modern deep learning…

There is an increase in interest to model driving maneuver patterns via the automatic unsupervised clustering of naturalistic sequential kinematic driving data. The patterns learned are often used in transportation research areas such as…

We present metrics for measuring the similarity of states in a finite Markov decision process (MDP). The formulation of our metrics is based on the notion of bisimulation for MDPs, with an aim towards solving discounted infinite horizon…

A standard way to move particles in a SMC sampler is to apply several steps of a MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) kernel. Unfortunately, it is not clear how many steps need to be performed for optimal performance. In addition, the output of…

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks efficiently represent large multi-variate probability distributions. They are preferred in practice over other probabilistic representations such as Bayesian and Markov networks…