相关论文: Predicting economic growth with classical physics …

Economic growth is unpredictable unless demand is quantified. We solve this problem by introducing the demand for unpaid spare time and a user quantity named human capacity. It organizes and amplifies spare time required for enjoying…

The analysis of the demographic transition of the past century and a half, using both empirical data and mathematical models, has rendered a wealth of well-established facts, including the dramatic increases in life expectancy. Despite…

For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries…

Biological time can be measured in two ways: in generations and in physical (chronological) time. When generations overlap, these two notions diverge, which impedes our ability to relate mathematical models to real populations. In this…

Is a causal description of human wealth history conceivable? To investigate the matter we introduce a simple causal albeit strongly aggregated model, assuming that the observed wealth growth is mainly driven by human collaborative efforts…

Contrary to common belief, both the Earth's human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential, i.e., in a super-Malthusian mode, for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous…

By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a…

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that…

This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…

It has been shown that the long term evolution of the Gross Product of the World after World War II can be well portrayed by the exponential function with the crossover at the year 1973, cinsiding with the Oil Crisis onset. For the the…

Although the concepts of age, survival and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss…

The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis,…

Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully…

This paper shows that differentiating the lifetimes of two phenotypes independently from their fertility can lead to a qualitative change in the equilibrium of a population: since survival and reproduction are distinct functional aspects of…

This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium…

We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national savings rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960-2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate…

Understanding demographic and migrational patterns constitutes a great challenge. Millions of individual decisions, motivated by economic, political, demographic, rational, and/or emotional reasons underlie the high complexity of…

The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this…

Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…

Well protected human and laboratory animal populations with abundant resources are evolutionary unprecedented. Physical approach, which takes advantage of their extensively quantified mortality, establishes that its dominant fraction yields…