相关论文: Benford's law: A theoretical explanation for base …
The standard conditional probability definition formula is derived as a consequence of the Insufficient Reason Principle expressed as the Maximum Relative Divergence Principle for grading (order-comonotonic) functions on a totally ordered…
Associated to a random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$ and a positive integer $n$, there is a return probability of the random walk returning to the origin after $n$ steps. An interesting question is when the set of return probabilities uniquely…
We propose a simple definition of an explanation for the outcome of a classifier based on concepts from causality. We compare it with previously proposed notions of explanation, and study their complexity. We conduct an experimental…
We present a restricted variable generalization of Warning's Second Theorem (a result giving a lower bound on the number of solutions of a low degree polynomial system over a finite field, assuming one solution exists). This is analogous to…
Probabilistic justification logic is a modal logic with two kind of modalities: probability measures and explicit justification terms. We present a tableau procedure that can be used to decide the satisfiability problem for this logic in…
This paper is an attempt to bring together two approaches to language analysis. The possible use of probabilistic information in principle-based grammars and parsers is considered, including discussion on some theoretical and computational…
In previous articles we presented a simple set of axioms named Contexts, Systems and Modalities (CSM), where the structure of quantum mechanics appears as a result of the interplay between the quantized number of modalities accessible to a…
The occurrence of Simpson's paradox (SP) in $2\times 2$ contingency tables has been well studied. The present work comprehensively revisits this problem using a combination of philosophical reflections, causal considerations, and…
We study the situations when the solution to a weighted stochastic recursion has a power law tail. To this end, we develop two complementary approaches, the first one extends Goldie's (1991) implicit renewal theorem to cover recursions on…
A binary relation on graphs is recursively enumerable if and only if it can be computed by a formula in monadic second-order logic. The latter means that the formula defines a set of graphs, in the usual way, such that each "computation…
This paper presents a novel explanation of the cause of quantum probabilities and the Born rule based on the intuitionistic interpretation of quantum mechanics where propositions obey constructive (intuitionistic) logic. The use of…
A very simple but useful almost sure convergence theorem of probability is given.
We prove the theorems which are equivalent to the Roland's results such that a new form of them allows to consider some generalizations. In particular, we give generators of primes more than a fixed prime.
The paper studies a probabilistic notion of causes in Markov chains that relies on the counterfactuality principle and the probability-raising property. This notion is motivated by the use of causes for monitoring purposes where the aim is…
We derive the discrete version of the classical Helmholtz condition. Precisely, we state a theorem characterizing second order finite differences equations admitting a Lagrangian formulation. Moreover, in the affirmative case, we provide…
This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes…
This paper presents an investigation on the structure of conditional events and on the probability measures which arise naturally in this context. In particular we introduce a construction which defines a (finite) {\em Boolean algebra of…
We study the problem of deriving policies, or rules, that when enacted on a complex system, cause a desired outcome. Absent the ability to perform controlled experiments, such rules have to be inferred from past observations of the system's…
Recently, a thermodynamic definition of time has been introduced. This definition is useful to find approach some open problems in physics. But, it was obtained by a phenomenological approach and a logical inconsistency appears in the…
The purpose of this article is to formulate a number of probabilistic hidden-variable theorems, to provide proofs in some cases, and counterexamples to some conjectured relationships. The first theorem is the fundamental one. It asserts the…