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We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-01 Angus Lewis , Antonio Parrella , John Maclean , Andrew J. Black

Our method extends the application of random spanning trees to cases where the response variable belongs to the exponential family, making it suitable for a wide range of real-world scenarios, including non-Gaussian likelihoods. The…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-18 Ruiman Zhong , Erick A. Chacón-Montalván , Paula Moraga

Gene-gene and gene-environment interactions are widely believed to play significant roles in explaining the variability of complex traits. While substantial research exists in this area, a comprehensive statistical framework that addresses…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-18 Durba Bhattacharya , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The mixture cure model for analyzing survival data is characterized by the assumption that the population under study is divided into a group of subjects who will experience the event of interest over some finite time horizon and another…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-30 Oswaldo Gressani , Christel Faes , Niel Hens

We propose an algorithm for the efficient and robust sampling of the posterior probability distribution in Bayesian inference problems. The algorithm combines the local search capabilities of the Manifold Metropolis Adjusted Langevin…

This article introduces a Bayesian neural network estimation method for quantile regression assuming an asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) for the response variable. It is shown that the posterior distribution for feedforward neural…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-04-06 Sanket R. Jantre , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

This paper proposes approaches for the analysis of multiple changepoint models when dependency in the data is modelled through a hierarchical Gaussian Markov random field. Integrated nested Laplace approximations are used to approximate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-03-17 Jason Wyse , Nial Friel , Håvard Rue

Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-01-17 Jean Daunizeau

We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-02-24 Anurag Ghosh , Soumalya Mukhopadhyay , Sandipan Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Bayesian hierarchical models are increasingly popular for realistic modelling and analysis of complex data. This trend is accompanied by the need for flexible, general, and computationally efficient methods for model criticism and conflict…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-02 Egil Ferkingstad , Leonhard Held , Håvard Rue

To understand how rich dynamics emerge in neural populations, we require models exhibiting a wide range of activity patterns while remaining interpretable in terms of connectivity and single-neuron dynamics. However, it has been challenging…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2020-03-10 Alexandre René , André Longtin , Jakob H. Macke

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-02 Michele Peruzzi , David B. Dunson

We conduct non-asymptotic analysis on the mean-field variational inference for approximating posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models that may involve latent variables. We show that the mean-field approximation to the posterior…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-11-06 Wei Han , Yun Yang

Given discrete time observations over a growing time interval, we consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the L\'evy density of a L\'evy process belonging to a flexible class of infinite activity subordinators. Posterior…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-09-10 Denis Belomestny , Shota Gugushvili , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-12-02 Zhijian He , Shifeng Huo , Tianhui Yang

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

It is very challenging to select informative features from tens of thousands of measured features in high-throughput data analysis. Recently, several parametric/regression models have been developed utilizing the gene network information to…

应用统计 · 统计学 2014-08-01 Yize Zhao , Jian Kang , Tianwei Yu

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

The Bayesian approach to inference stands out for naturally allowing borrowing information across heterogeneous populations, with different samples possibly sharing the same distribution. A popular Bayesian nonparametric model for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-25 Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster , Giovanni Rebaudo