相关论文: On the Concentration of the Missing Mass

Satellite conjunctions involving "near misses" of space objects are becoming increasingly likely. One approach to risk analysis for them involves the computation of the collision probability, but this has been regarded as having some…

We assume that the forecast error follows a probability distribution which is symmetric and monotonically non-increasing on non-negative real numbers, and if there is a mismatch between observed and predicted value, then we suffer a loss.…

Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance…

The recent paper [27] provides a statistical analysis for efficient detection of signal components when missing data samples are present. Here we focus our attention to some complex-valued discrete random variables $X_l(m,N)$ ($0\le l\le…

Randomness is viewed through an analogy between a physical quantity, density of gas, and a mathematical construct -- probability density. Boltzmann's deduction of equilibrium distribution of ideal gas placed in an external potential field…

We study the problem of sampling from a distribution $\mu$ with density $\propto e^{-V}$ for some potential function $V:\mathbb R^d\to \mathbb R$ with query access to $V$ and $\nabla V$. We start with the following standard assumptions: (1)…

Missing data imputation, where a model is trained on observed data to estimate unobserved values, is a fundamental problem in machine learning. In this paper, we rigorously formulate imputation model learning as a mean-squared error risk…

Data represented by probability measures arise as empirical distributions, posterior distributions, and feature-based representations of complex objects. We study heterogeneity in a population of probability measures through the expected…

Importance sampling is a popular technique in Bayesian inference: by reweighting samples drawn from a proposal distribution we are able to obtain samples and moment estimates from a Bayesian posterior over latent variables. Recent work,…

Time series in real-world applications often have missing observations, making typical analytical methods unsuitable. One method for dealing with missing data is the concept of amplitude modulation. While this principle works with any data,…

We study Martin-L\"{o}f random (ML-random) points on computable probability measures on sample and parameter spaces (Bayes models). We consider variants of conditional randomness defined by ML-randomness on Bayes models and those of…

Random probabilities are a key component to many nonparametric methods in Statistics and Machine Learning. To quantify comparisons between different laws of random probabilities several works are starting to use the elegant Wasserstein over…

Let X_1,...., X_n be a collection of iid discrete random variables, and Y_1,..., Y_m a set of noisy observations of such variables. Assume each observation Y_a to be a random function of some a random subset of the X_i's, and consider the…

Consider a Gaussian memoryless multiple source with $m$ components with joint probability distribution known only to lie in a given class of distributions. A subset of $k \leq m$ components are sampled and compressed with the objective of…

We consider deconvolution from repeated observations with unknown error distribution. So far, this model has mostly been studied under the additional assumption that the errors are symmetric. We construct an estimator for the non-symmetric…

A discrete-time stochastic process derived from a model of basketball is used to generalize any discrete distribution. The generalized distributions can have one or two more parameters than the parent distribution. Those derived from…

We obtain a Bernstein type Gaussian concentration inequality for martingales. Our inequality improves the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality for moderate deviations $x$. Following the work of McDiarmid (1989), Talagrand (1996) and Boucheron, Lugosi…

We introduce a sharpness functional for probabilistic models that quantifies sharpness as an intrinsic property of the probability distribution. The measure is derived based on a rank-based concentration principle that tracks upward…

Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…

Let $X_1,X_2,...,X_n$ be a sequence of independent or locally dependent random variables taking values in $\mathbb{Z}_+$. In this paper, we derive sharp bounds, via a new probabilistic method, for the total variation distance between the…