相关论文: Forecasting electricity consumption by aggregating…

Due to the liberalization of markets, the change in the energy mix and the surrounding energy laws, electricity research is a dynamically altering field with steadily changing challenges. One challenge especially for investment decisions is…

We study how we can adapt a predictor to a non-stationary environment with advises from multiple experts. We study the problem under complete feedback when the best expert changes over time from a decision theoretic point of view. Proposed…

Recently a growing literature study a new forecast aggregation setting where each forecaster is additionally asked ``what's your expectation for the average of other forecasters' forecasts?''. However, most theoretic results in this setting…

This paper discusses how usage patterns and preferences of inhabitants can be learned efficiently to allow smart homes to autonomously achieve energy savings. We propose a frequent sequential pattern mining algorithm suitable for real-life…

We address the problem of sequential prediction with expert advice in a non-stationary environment with long-term memory guarantees in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth [4]. We give a linear-time algorithm that improves on the best known…

Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and their associated Model Output Statistics (MOS) are available. Combining all of these predictions in an optimal way is however not straightforward. This can be achieved thanks to Expert…

We consider the problem of forecasting the aggregate demand of a pool of price-responsive consumers of electricity. The price-response of the aggregation is modeled by an optimization problem that is characterized by a set of marginal…

Probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in power trading because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. At the same time, methods are…

Using hourly energy consumption data recorded by smart meters, retailers can estimate the day-ahead energy consumption of their customer portfolio. Deep neural networks are especially suited for this task as a huge amount of historical…

We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying information. Prior work shows strong impossibility results, e.g.…

In this paper, the process of forecasting household energy consumption is studied within the framework of the nonparametric Gaussian Process (GP), using multiple short time series data. As we begin to use smart meter data to paint a clearer…

The accuracy of the household electricity consumption forecast is vital in taking better cost effective and energy efficient decisions. In order to design accurate, proper and efficient forecasting model, characteristics of the series have…

We generalize some of the functional (hyper-circle) a posteriori estimates from finite element settings to general graphs or Hilbert space settings. We provide several theoretical results in regard to the generalized a posteriori error…

The current work is motivated by the need for robust statistical methods for precision medicine; as such, we address the need for statistical methods that provide actionable inference for a single unit at any point in time. We aim to learn…

Accurate probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices is critical for market participants to inform trading decisions. Existing studies rely on specific domain features, such as Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and the last…

Middle-term horizon (months to a year) power consumption prediction is a main challenge in the energy sector, in particular when probabilistic forecasting is considered. We propose a new modelling approach that incorporates trend,…

Understanding and predicting the electric consumption patterns in the short-, mid- and long-term, at the distribution and transmission level, is a fundamental asset for smart grids infrastructure planning, dynamic network reconfiguration,…

Short-term forecasts of energy consumption are invaluable for the operation of energy systems, including low voltage electricity networks. However, network loads are challenging to predict when highly desegregated to small numbers of…

We consider the problem of estimating piecewise regular functions in an online setting, i.e., the data arrive sequentially and at any round our task is to predict the value of the true function at the next revealed point using the available…

When considering a model selection or, more generally, an aggregation approach for adaptive statistical inference, it is often necessary to compute estimators over a wide range of model complexities including unnecessarily large models even…