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We introduce an optimization framework for variational inference based on the coupled free energy, extending variational inference techniques to account for the curved geometry of the coupled exponential family. This family includes…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-29 Kenric Nelson , Igor Oliveira , Amenah Al-Najafi , Fode Zhang , Hon Keung Tony Ng

We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-03-04 Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Michalis K. Titsias , David M. Blei

Variational inference is a popular method for estimating model parameters and conditional distributions in hierarchical and mixed models, which arise frequently in many settings in the health, social, and biological sciences. Variational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-01-10 Ted Westling , Tyler H. McCormick

Inference networks of traditional Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are typically amortized, resulting in relatively inaccurate posterior approximation compared to instance-wise variational optimization. Recent semi-amortized approaches were…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-18 Minyoung Kim , Vladimir Pavlovic

Inference for GP models with non-Gaussian noises is computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. Many recent inference methods approximate the posterior distribution with a simpler distribution defined on a small number of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-09-11 Linfeng Liu , Liping Liu

We propose a new scalable multi-class Gaussian process classification approach building on a novel modified softmax likelihood function. The new likelihood has two benefits: it leads to well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and allows for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-05-24 Théo Galy-Fajou , Florian Wenzel , Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

While deep learning has expanded the possibilities for highly expressive variational families, the practical benefits of these tools for variational inference (VI) are often limited by the minimization of the traditional Kullback-Leibler…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-18 Roman Soletskyi , Marylou Gabrié , Bruno Loureiro

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Coordinate ascent variational inference is an important algorithm for inference in probabilistic models, but it is slow because it updates only a single variable at a time. Block coordinate methods perform inference faster by updating…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-05-21 Neal Lawton , Aram Galstyan , Greg Ver Steeg

We derive and present explicit algorithms to facilitate streamlined computing for variational inference for models containing higher level random effects. Existing literature, such as Lee and Wand (2016), is such that streamlined…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-07-07 Tui H. Nolan , Marianne Menictas , Matt P. Wand

We introduce collapsed compilation, a novel approximate inference algorithm for discrete probabilistic graphical models. It is a collapsed sampling algorithm that incrementally selects which variable to sample next based on the partial…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2018-06-01 Tal Friedman , Guy Van den Broeck

Bayesian inference offers benefits over maximum likelihood, but it also comes with computational costs. Computing the posterior is typically intractable, as is marginalizing that posterior to form the posterior predictive distribution. In…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-18 Alexander A. Alemi , Ben Poole

Variational inference is a popular technique to approximate a possibly intractable Bayesian posterior with a more tractable one. Recently, boosting variational inference has been proposed as a new paradigm to approximate the posterior by a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-03-08 Francesco Locatello , Rajiv Khanna , Joydeep Ghosh , Gunnar Rätsch

Combined inference for heterogeneous high-dimensional data is critical in modern biology, where clinical and various kinds of molecular data may be available from a single study. Classical genetic association studies regress a single…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-03-22 Hélène Ruffieux , Anthony C. Davison , Jörg Hager , Irina Irincheeva

Recent research has made significant progress on the problem of bounding log partition functions for exponential family graphical models. Such bounds have associated dual parameters that are often used as heuristic estimates of the marginal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-07-19 Pradeep Ravikumar , John Lafferty

Discrete choice models are fundamental tools in management science, economics, and marketing for understanding and predicting decision-making. Logit-based models are dominant in applied work, largely due to their convenient closed-form…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-06 Easton Huch , Michael Keane

We consider universal inference in variance components models, focusing on settings where the parameter is near or at the boundary of the parameter set. Two cases, which are not handled by existing state-of-the-art methods, are of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-03 Yiqiao Zhang , Karl Oskar Ekvall , Aaron J. Molstad

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes (VB). The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-01 Matt Jones , Peter Chang , Kevin Murphy

Several strategies have been developed recently to ensure valid inference after model selection; some of these are easy to compute, while others fare better in terms of inferential power. In this paper, we consider a selective inference…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-13 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor

We introduce a new compositional framework for generalized variational inference, clarifying the different parts of a model, how they interact, and how they compose. We explain that both exact Bayesian inference and the loss functions…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-26 Toby St Clere Smithe , Marco Perin