相关论文: Power of earthquake cluster detection tests

Any periodic variations of earthquake occurrence rates in response to small, known, periodic stress variations provide important opportunities to learn about the earthquake nucleation process. Yet, reliable detection of earthquake…

The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…

We study statistical properties of the number of large earthquakes over the past century. We analyze the cumulative distribution of the number of earthquakes with magnitude larger than threshold M in time interval T, and quantify the…

Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…

The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…

We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global catalogs: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. These distributions are required to develop the number test for forecasts of future seismic…

A general dynamical cluster identification framework including both modeling and computation is developed. The earthquake declustering problem is studied to demonstrate how this framework applies. A stochastic model is proposed for…

The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…

We develop an efficient numerical scheme to solve accurately the set of nonlinear integral equations derived previously in (Saichev and Sornette, 2007), which describes the distribution of inter-event times in the framework of a general…

Monitoring stress recovery and accumulation associated with megaquakes helps to assess their recurrence. Previous studies proposed a high likelihood of imminent recurrence for the 2011 Tohoku and the 17th-century Hokkaido megaquakes…

Many systems in nature are conjectured to exist at a critical point, including the brain and earthquake faults. The primary reason for this conjecture is that the distribution of clusters (avalanches of firing neurons in the brain or…

Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognised to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant…

Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede both earthquake research and hazard mitigation. Well-worn…

In this chapter we review some examples, methods, and recent results involving comparison of clustering properties of point processes. Our approach is founded on some basic observations allowing us to consider void probabilities and moment…

Cluster analysis is a fundamental research issue in statistics and machine learning. In many modern clustering methods, we need to determine whether two subsets of samples come from the same cluster. Since these subsets are usually…

Clustering is part of unsupervised analysis methods that consist in grouping samples into homogeneous and separate subgroups of observations also called clusters. To interpret the clusters, statistical hypothesis testing is often used to…

Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…

Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies, including seismic hazard assessment. We assess the effect of…

We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…