相关论文: Elections and statistics: the case of "United Russ…

The paper considers exploratory data analysis and approaches in predictive analytics for air alerts during the Russian-Ukrainian war which broke out on Feb 24, 2022. The results illustrate that alerts in regions correlate with one another…

U.S. Presidential Election forecasting has been a research interest for several decades. Currently, election prediction consists of two main approaches: traditional models that incorporate economic data and poll surveys, and models that…

Analysis of vote distributions using current tools from statistical physics is of increasing interest. While data considered for physics studies are subject to a careful understanding of error sources, such analysis are almost absent in…

The article presents the results of multivariate classification of Russian regions by the indicators characterizing the population income and their concentration. The clusterization was performed upon an author approach to selecting the…

Referring to a standard context of voting theory, and to the classic notion of voting situation, here we show that it is possible to observe any arbitrary set of elections' outcomes, no matter how paradoxical it may appear. On this purpose…

Following recent policy changes by X (Twitter) and other social media platforms, user interaction data has become increasingly difficult to access. These restrictions are impeding robust research pertaining to social and political phenomena…

There is growing concern that over the past decade, industrialized democratic nations are becoming increasingly politically polarized. Indeed, elections in the US, UK, France, and Germany have all seen tightly won races, with notable…

This study provides a systematic comparative analysis of media visibility of different political families during the 2024 European Parliament elections. We analyzed close to 21,500 unique news from leading national outlets in Austria,…

The two most common types of electoral systems (ES) used in electing national legislatures are proportional representation and plurality voting. When they are evaluated, most often the arguments come from social choice theory and political…

I propose an open dataset of country-level historical opinion polling data for the European Union and the UK. The dataset aims to fill a gap in available opinion polling data for the European Union. Some existing datasets are restricted to…

The design of fair voting rules has been addressed quite often in the literature. Still, the so-called inverse problem is not entirely resolved. We summarize some achievements in this direction and formulate explicit open questions and…

The field of cycling analytics has only recently started to develop due to limited access to open data sources. Accordingly, research and data sources are very divergent, with large differences in information used across studies. To improve…

Elections, specially in countries such as Brazil with an electorate of the order of 100 million people, yield large-scale data-sets embodying valuable information on the dynamics through which individuals influence each other and make…

Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns…

The proposed election system lies in ensuring that it is transparent and impartial.Thus while the electoral system may vary from country to country, It has to take into account the peculiarities of every society while at the same time…

We analyzed 2012 and 2016 YouGov pre-election polls in order to understand how different population groups voted in the 2012 and 2016 elections. We broke the data down by demographics and state. We display our findings with a series of…

One of the most widely known and important applications of probability and statistics is scientific polling to forecast election results. In 1936, Gallup predicted correctly the victory of Roosevelt over Landon in the US presidential…

Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for…

Search engine results depend not only on the algorithms but also on how users interact with them. However, factors affecting the selection of a search query remain understudied. Using a representative survey of Swiss citizens before a round…

As social media has permeated large parts of the population it simultaneously has become a way to reach many people e.g. with political messages. One way to efficiently reach those people is the application of automated computer programs…