相关论文: COPAR - Multivariate time series modeling using th…

Multivariate time series exhibit two types of dependence: across variables and across time points. Vine copulas are graphical models for the dependence and can conveniently capture both types of dependence in the same model. We derive the…

This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…

Copula-based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly this approach…

The statistical analysis of univariate quantiles is a well developed research topic. However, there is a need for research in multivariate quantiles. We construct bivariate (conditional) quantiles using the level curves of vine copula based…

We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…

We are studying the problems of modeling and inference for multivariate count time series data with Poisson marginals. The focus is on linear and log-linear models. For studying the properties of such processes we develop a novel conceptual…

Regular vine distributions which constitute a flexible class of multivariate dependence models are discussed. Since multivariate copulae constructed through pair-copula decompositions were introduced to the statistical community, interest…

In the copula-based approach to univariate time series modeling, the finite dimensional temporal dependence of a stationary time series is captured by a copula. Recent studies investigate how copula-based time series models can be…

A bivariate integer-valued autoregressive process of order 1 (BINAR(1)) with copula-joint innovations is studied. Different parameter estimation methods are analyzed and compared via Monte Carlo simulations with emphasis on estimation of…

Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged…

This paper provides a simple, yet reliable, alternative to the (Bayesian) estimation of large multivariate VARs with time variation in the conditional mean equations and/or in the covariance structure. With our new methodology, the original…

We propose a novel distributional regression model for a multivariate response vector based on a copula process over the covariate space. It uses the implicit copula of a Gaussian multivariate regression, which we call a ``regression…

We exploit Gaussian copulas to specify a class of multivariate circular distributions and obtain parametric models for the analysis of correlated circular data. This approach provides a straightforward extension of traditional multivariate…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become a staple in the analysis of multivariate time series and are formulated in the time domain as difference equations, with an implied covariance structure. In many contexts, it is desirable to…

In this paper we present an application of the use of autocopulas for modelling financial time series showing serial dependencies that are not necessarily linear. The approach presented here is semi-parametric in that it is characterized by…

We propose a new copula model for replicated multivariate spatial data. Unlike classical models that assume multivariate normality of the data, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that some factors exist that affect the joint…

We address an important yet challenging problem - modeling high-dimensional dependencies across multivariates such as financial indicators in heterogeneous markets. In reality, a market couples and influences others over time, and the…

Vine copulas are a flexible tool for multivariate non-Gaussian distributions. For data from an observational study where the explanatory variables and response variables are measured together, a proposed vine copula regression method uses…

We demonstrate how the uncertainty of parameter point estimates can be assessed in a maximum likelihood framework in order to prevent overfitting and erroneous detection of time-inhomogeneity. The class of models we consider are regular…

In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-$CVaR$ portfolio we compute…