相关论文: Probabilistic wind speed forecasting in Hungary

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an application of Bayesian inference to the problems of model selection, combined estimation and prediction that produces a straightforward model choice criteria and less risky predictions. However, the…

While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how…

Statistical post-processing of global ensemble weather forecasts is revisited by leveraging recent developments in machine learning. Verification of past forecasts is exploited to learn systematic deficiencies of numerical weather…

In recent years, ensemble weather forecasting have become a routine at all major weather prediction centres. These forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with different initial conditions or model…

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…

Ensemble forecast post-processing is a necessary step in producing accurate probabilistic forecasts. Conventional post-processing methods operate by estimating the parameters of a parametric distribution, frequently on a per-location or…

Various methods have been developed to combine inference across multiple sets of results for unsupervised clustering, within the ensemble clustering literature. The approach of reporting results from one `best' model out of several…

In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…

Currently all major meteorological centres generate ensemble forecasts using their operational ensemble prediction systems; however, it is a general problem that the spread of the ensemble is too small, resulting in underdispersive…

A new probabilistic post-processing method for wind vectors is presented in a distributional regression framework employing the bivariate Gaussian distribution. In contrast to previous studies all parameters of the distribution are…

All numerical weather prediction models used for the wind industry need to produce their forecasts starting from the main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC, once the analysis becomes available. The six-hour latency time between two…

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…

The issue of the accuracy of wind speed/power forecasts is becoming more and more important as wind power production continues to increase year after year. Having accurate forecasts for the energy market clashes with intrinsic difficulties…

Clustering is a powerful tool which has been used in several forecasting works, such as time series forecasting, real time storm detection, flood forecasting and so on. In this paper, a generic methodology for weather forecasting is…

Weather prediction today is performed with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These are deterministic simulation models describing the dynamics of the atmosphere, and evolving the current conditions forward in time to obtain a…

Post-processing typically takes the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and applies linear statistical techniques to produce improve localized forecasts, by including additional observations, or determining systematic…

In recent years, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool for high-resolution weather forecasting. While most current machine learning models focus on deterministic forecasts, accurately capturing the uncertainty in the…

In this work, we propose a novel framework for density forecast combination by constructing time-varying weights based on time series features, which is called Feature-based Bayesian Forecasting Model Averaging (FEBAMA). Our framework…