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What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

The causal discovery of Bayesian networks is an active and important research area, and it is based upon searching the space of causal models for those which can best explain a pattern of probabilistic dependencies shown in the data.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2016-07-25 Xuhui Zhang , Kevin B. Korb , Ann E. Nicholson , Steven Mascaro

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

We consider causal models with two observed variables and one latent variables, each variable being discrete, with the goal of characterizing the possible distributions on outcomes that can result from controlling one of the observed…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2021-03-05 Kevin Shu

Causal models have proven extremely useful in offering formal representations of causal relationships between a set of variables. Yet in many situations, there are non-causal relationships among variables. For example, we may want variables…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-01-18 Sander Beckers , Joseph Y. Halpern , Christopher Hitchcock

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-02-28 Matthew J. Vowels

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Identifying causal effects is a key problem of interest across many disciplines. The two long-standing approaches to estimate causal effects are observational and experimental (randomized) studies. Observational studies can suffer from…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-09 Sepehr Elahi , Sina Akbari , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash , Patrick Thiran

The task of causal representation learning aims to uncover latent higher-level causal variables that affect lower-level observations. Identifying the true latent causal variables from observed data, while allowing instantaneous causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-19 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Causal representation learning (CRL) enhances machine learning models' robustness and generalizability by learning structural causal models associated with data-generating processes. We focus on a family of CRL methods that uses contrastive…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-17 Xiusi Li , Sékou-Oumar Kaba , Siamak Ravanbakhsh

This paper develops a class of potential outcomes models characterized by three main features: (i) Unobserved heterogeneity can be represented by a vector of potential outcomes and a type describing the manner in which an instrument…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-10-10 Manu Navjeevan , Rodrigo Pinto , Andres Santos

We develop a criterion to certify whether causal effects are identifiable in linear structural equation models with latent variables. Linear structural equation models correspond to directed graphs whose nodes represent the random variables…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-25 Nils Sturma , Mathias Drton

I develop a new identification strategy for treatment effects when noisy measurements of unobserved confounding factors are available. I use proxy variables to construct a random variable conditional on which treatment variables become…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-09-30 Kenichi Nagasawa

Observed associations in a database may be due in whole or part to variations in unrecorded (latent) variables. Identifying such variables and their causal relationships with one another is a principal goal in many scientific and practical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-12-12 Ricardo Silva , Richard Scheines , Clark Glymour , Peter L. Spirtes

Graph-based causal discovery methods aim to capture conditional independencies consistent with the observed data and differentiate causal relationships from indirect or induced ones. Successful construction of graphical models of data…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-01-08 Boris Hayete , Fred Gruber , Anna Decker , Raymond Yan

The bifactor model and its extensions are multidimensional latent variable models, under which each item measures up to one subdimension on top of the primary dimension(s). Despite their wide applications to educational and psychological…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-12-23 Guanhua Fang , Xin Xu , Jinxin Guo , Zhiliang Ying , Susu Zhang

Causal inference of exact individual treatment outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders is rarely possible. Recent work has extended prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees to partially identifiable causal outcomes, by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-02 Myrl G. Marmarelis , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan , Fred Morstatter

We consider the linear causal representation learning setting where we observe a linear mixing of $d$ unknown latent factors, which follow a linear structural causal model. Recent work has shown that it is possible to recover the latent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-05 Tianyu Chen , Kevin Bello , Francesco Locatello , Bryon Aragam , Pradeep Ravikumar

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-13 Jikai Jin , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Sham Kakade , Hanlin Zhang