相关论文: Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?

It has been observed that the earthquake events possess short-term memory, i.e. that events occurring in a particular location are dependent on the short history of that location. We conduct an analysis to see whether real-time earthquake…

By analyzing the seismicity in natural time and studying the evolution of the fluctuations of the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal for various scales of different length i (number of events), we can identify the approach of…

In this paper we develop an understanding of the proper time of the Tohoku earthquake source. The paper is dedicated to the 120th anniversary of Einstein's theory of relativity, but the dedication is symbolic, since we are investigating a…

Plate motions are governed by equilibrium between basal and edge forces. Great earthquakes may induce differential static stress changes across tectonic plates, enabling a new equilibrium state. Here we consider the torque balance for…

We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic…

Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…

Mainshocks are often followed by increased earthquake activity (aftershocks). According to the Omori-Utsu law, the rate of aftershocks decays as a power law over time. While aftershocks typically occur in the vicinity of the mainshock,…

The aftershock sequence of the devastating Japan earthquake of March 2011 is analyzed for the presence of periodicities at the Earth tide periods. We use spectral analysis as well as a time-domain method KORRECT developed earlier to detect…

Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…

The fundamentals of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks are presented. The theory contains an original concept of the proper time of the earthquake source, the course of which, generally speaking, differs from the course of world…

We study statistical properties of the number of large earthquakes over the past century. We analyze the cumulative distribution of the number of earthquakes with magnitude larger than threshold M in time interval T, and quantify the…

Rank-ordering statistics provides a perspective on the rare, largest elements of a population, whereas the statistics of cumulative distributions are dominated by the more numerous small events. The exponent of a power law distribution can…

The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…

Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…

Earthquakes are commonly estimated using physical seismic stations, however, due to the installation requirements and costs of these stations, global coverage quickly becomes impractical. An efficient and lower-cost alternative is to…

Non-inertial afterslip has been inferred to occur following large earthquakes. An explanation for this slow slip phenomenon is that coseismically generated stresses induce sliding on parts of a fault surface with velocity-strengthening…

Precise real time estimates of earthquake magnitude and location are essential for early warning and rapid response. While recently multiple deep learning approaches for fast assessment of earthquakes have been proposed, they usually rely…

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes started with a magnitude (M) 6.5 quake on Apr 14 on the Hinagu fault zone (FZ), followed by active seismicity including an M6.4 quake. Eventually, an M7.3 quake occurred on Apr 16 on the Futagawa FZ. We…