相关论文: Estimating Total Solar Irradiance during the 21st …
The variation with time from 1956-2002 of the globally averaged rate of ionization produced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere is deduced and shown to have a cyclic component of period roughly twice the 11 year solar cycle period. Long term…
The Solar Diameter Monitor measured the duration of solar meridian transits during the 6 years 1981 to 1987, spanning the declining half of solar cycle 21. We have combined these photoelectric measurements with models of the solar…
Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…
The minimum - maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of the solar activity forecasting methods, is based on a linear relationship between relative sunspot number in the minimum and maximum epochs of solar cycles. In the present…
The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that…
As the 21st century progresses, photovoltaic technology is becoming a major provider of the worlds electricity, while effects of global climate change unfold. This development begs the question: is climate change affecting the energy…
We report a data-parsimonious machine learning model for short-term forecasting of solar irradiance. The model inputs include sky camera images that are reduced to scalar features to meet data transmission constraints. The output irradiance…
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…
Variations of the solar UV irradiance are an important driver of chemical and physical processes in the Earth's upper atmosphere and may also influence global climate. Here we reconstruct solar UV irradiance in the range 115-400 nm over the…
We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing…
In response to the claim by Dziembowski et al. (2001) that the solar radius decreases with magnetic activity at the rate of 1.5 km/yr, we consider the theoretical question whether a radius variation is expected with the solar cycle. If the…
The variability of the spectral solar irradiance (SSI) over the course of the 11-year solar cycle is one of the manifestations of solar magnetic activity. There is a strong evidence that the SSI variability has an effect on the Earth's…
We report observations of a steady 20 year decline of solar photospheric fields at latitudes $\geq$45${^{o}}$ starting from $\sim$1995. This prolonged and continuing decline, combined with the fact that Cycle 24 is already past its peak,…
Solar radiation is made up of three components of electromagnetic waves: infrared, visible and ultraviolet. The infrared component is the cause of thermal energy, the visible spectrum allows to see through the eyes and the ultraviolet…
A transition to a fully global renewable energy infrastructure is potentially possible in no more than a few decades, even using current wind/solar technologies. We demonstrate that at its completion this transition would terminate…
We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating…
The Sun is the primary source of energy for Earth and one of the main external drivers of its climate. Solar irradiance -- the radiative power emitted by the Sun and received at 1-AU -- varies on all observable timescales. It is measured as…
The last solar minimum has been unusually quiet compared to the previous minima (since space-based radiometric measurements are available). The Sun's magnetic flux was substantially lower during this minimum. Some studies also show that the…