相关论文: Some methods of estimating uncertainty in accident…

In this paper, we develop a computational approach for estimating the mean value of a quantity in the presence of uncertainty. We demonstrate that, under some mild assumptions, the upper and lower bounds of the mean value are efficiently…

When simulating a complex stochastic system, the behavior of output response depends on input parameters estimated from finite real-world data, and the finiteness of data brings input uncertainty into the system. The quantification of the…

We consider the computational challenges associated with uncertainty quantification involved in parameter estimation such as seismic slowness and hydraulic transmissivity fields. The reconstruction of these parameters can be mathematically…

The uncertainty of Compton backscattering process is studied by virtue of analytical formulas, and the special effects of variant energy spread and energy drift on the systematic uncertainty estimation are also studied with Monte Carlo…

Model misspecification is ubiquitous in data analysis because the data-generating process is often complex and mathematically intractable. Therefore, assessing estimation uncertainty and conducting statistical inference under a possibly…

In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic approach to risk assessment of robot systems by focusing on the impact of uncertainties. While various approaches to identifying systematic hazards (e.g., bugs, design flaws, etc.) can be found in…

Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of many systems, in particular those with conflicting constraints, can be considerably speeded up by using multicanonical or related methods. Some of these approaches sample with a-priori unknown weight factors.…

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by…

In imaging inverse problems, one seeks to recover an image from missing/corrupted measurements. Because such problems are ill-posed, there is great motivation to quantify the uncertainty induced by the measurement-and-recovery process.…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Estimation of extreme quantile regions, spaces in which future extreme events can occur with a given low probability, even beyond the range of the observed data, is an important task in the analysis of extremes. Existing methods to estimate…

We present a method to quantify uncertainty in the predictions made by simulations of mathematical models that can be applied to a broad class of stochastic, discrete, and differential equation models. Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for…

Extreme response assessment is important in the design and operation of engineering structures, and is a crucial part of structural risk and reliability analyses. Structures should be designed in a way that enables them to withstand the…

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

We propose numerical integration methods for Choquet integrals where the capacities are given by distortion functions of an underlying probability measure. It relies on the explicit representation of the integrals for step functions and can…

Mathematical models simulate various events under different conditions, enabling an early overview of the system to be implemented in practice, reducing the waste of resources and in less time. In project optimization, these models play a…

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Turbulent flows play an important role in many scientific and technological design problems. Both Sub-Grid Scale (SGS) models in Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) based modeling will require turbulence…

Several aspects influence corrosive processes in RC structures, such as environmental conditions, structural geometry, and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate…