相关论文: When do Numbers Really Matter?

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by…

Relational inference leverages relationships between entities and links in a network to infer information about the network from a small sample. This method is often used when global information about the network is not available or…

Suppose that a sequence of data points follows a distribution of a certain parametric form, but that one or more of the underlying parameters may change over time. This paper addresses various natural questions in such a framework. We…

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

The value of uncertainty quantification on predictions for trained neural networks (NNs) on quantum chemical reference data is quantitatively explored. For this, the architecture of the PhysNet NN was suitably modified and the resulting…

Predicting when an individual will adopt a new behavior is an important problem in application domains such as marketing and public health. This paper examines the perfor- mance of a wide variety of social network based measurements…

We provide a framework for determining the centralities of agents in a broad family of random networks. Current understanding of network centrality is largely restricted to deterministic settings, but practitioners frequently use random…

We are concerned with the problem of detecting a single change point in the model parameters of time series data generated from an exponential family. In contrast to the existing literature, we allow that the true location of the change…

We examine the issue of stability of probability in reasoning about complex systems with uncertainty in structure. Normally, propositions are viewed as probability functions on an abstract random graph where it is implicitly assumed that…

Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the…

Various approaches and measures from network analysis have been applied to granular and particulate networks to gain insights into their structural, transport, failure-propagation and other systems-level properties. In this article, we…

Mathematical models are invaluable for understanding and predicting how biological systems behave, although their construction requires specifying mechanisms and relationships that are often not perfectly known. In the presence of multiple…

Quantification is well known to be a major obstacle in the construction of a probabilistic network, especially when relying on human experts for this purpose. The construction of a qualitative probabilistic network has been proposed as an…

This paper offers a commentary on the use of notions of statistical significance in choice modelling. We review the reasons for uncertainty in parameter estimates, provide a precise discussion on the computation of measures of uncertainty…

Networks describing the interaction of the elements that constitute a complex system grow and develop via a number of different mechanisms, such as the addition and deletion of nodes, the addition and deletion of edges, as well as the…

Recent research has found that diagnostic performance with Bayesian belief networks is often surprisingly insensitive to imprecision in the numerical probabilities. For example, the authors have recently completed an extensive study in…

Random networks are a powerful tool in the analytical modeling of complex networks as they allow us to write approximate mathematical models for diverse properties and behaviors of networks. One notable shortcoming of these models is that…

The causal (belief) network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independencies in a joint probability distribution. The exact methods and the approximation methods, which perform probabilistic inference in causal networks,…

We consider the problem of sequentially testing for changes in the mean parameter of a time series, compared to a benchmark period. Most tests in the literature focus on the null hypothesis of a constant mean versus the alternative of a…

We propose to impose symmetry in neural network parameters to improve parameter usage and make use of dedicated convolution and matrix multiplication routines. Due to significant reduction in the number of parameters as a result of the…