相关论文: Predicting Inflation: Professional Experts Versus …

Weather prediction today is performed with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These are deterministic simulation models describing the dynamics of the atmosphere, and evolving the current conditions forward in time to obtain a…

We conduct an extensive empirical study on short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) to address the long-standing question if the optimal model structure for EPF is univariate or multivariate. We provide evidence that despite a minor…

Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies…

Inflation is one of the most important economic indicators closely watched by both public institutions and private agents. This study compares the performance of a traditional econometric model, Mixed Data Sampling regression, with one of…

Predicting the economy's short-term dynamics -- a vital input to economic agents' decision-making process -- often uses lagged indicators in linear models. This is typically sufficient during normal times but could prove inadequate during…

Interest rate market models, like the LIBOR market model, have the advantage that the basic model quantities are directly observable in financial markets. Inflation market models extend this approach to inflation markets, where zero-coupon…

In fields that are mainly nonexperimental, such as economics and finance, it is inescapable to compute test statistics and confidence regions that are not probabilistically independent from previously examined data. The Bayesian and…

The efficient market hypothesis considers all available information already reflected in asset prices and limits the possibility of consistently achieving above-average returns by trading on publicly available data. We analyzed low…

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…

The goal of this study was to improve the post-processing of precipitation forecasts using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Instead of post-processing forecasts on a per-pixel basis, as is usually done when employing machine learning…

We revisit the inflection point inflation with an extended discussion to large field values and consider the reheating effects on the inflationary predictions. Parametrizing the reheating dynamics in terms of the reheating temperature and…

Warm inflation is an inflationary scenario in which a thermal bath coexists with the inflaton during inflation. This is unlike standard cold inflation in which the Universe is effectively devoid of particles during inflation. The thermal…

We analyse four consecutive cycles observed in the USA for employment and inflation. They are driven by three oil price shocks and an intended interest rate shock. Non-linear coupling between the rate equations for consumer products as prey…

We discuss the possibility that the inflationary paradigm, undoubtfully today's best framework to understand all the present cosmological data, may still have some viable challengers. The underlying idea for such discussions is that…

The paper uses structured machine learning regressions for nowcasting with panel data consisting of series sampled at different frequencies. Motivated by the problem of predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with…

Inflation predicts the generation of cosmological perturbations. Usually, the power spectra for the scalar and tensor modes are calculated with help of the slow roll approximation. In the case of power law inflation an exact result is…

To address the uncertainty in outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensembles of forecasts are used. To obtain such an ensemble of forecasts the NWP model is run multiple times, each time with different formulations and/or…

Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed mortality, is used to quantify the death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics and pandemics. However, predictions of expected mortality…

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…