相关论文: Bayesian Network Based XP Process Modelling

The Bayesian expected power (BEP) has become increasingly popular in sample size determination and assessment of the probability of success (POS) for a future trial. The BEP takes into consideration the uncertainty around the parameters…

We propose a practical Bayesian optimization method using Gaussian process regression, of which the marginal likelihood is maximized where the number of model selection steps is guided by a pre-defined threshold. Since Bayesian optimization…

Quality control in industrial processes is increasingly making use of prior scientific knowledge, often encoded in physical models that require numerical approximation. Statistical prediction, and subsequent optimization, is key to ensuring…

Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the…

A common problem in natural sciences is the comparison of competing models in the light of observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a statistically sound framework for this comparison based on the evidence each model provides for…

Model-based diagnosis reasons backwards from a functional schematic of a system to isolate faults given observations of anomalous behavior. We develop a fully probabilistic approach to model based diagnosis and extend it to support…

In this paper an efficient model based diagnostic process is described for systems whose components possess a causal relation between their inputs and their outputs. In this diagnostic process, firstly, a set of focuses on likely broken…

Active learning methods for neural networks are usually based on greedy criteria which ultimately give a single new design point for the evaluation. Such an approach requires either some heuristics to sample a batch of design points at one…

Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold.…

Predicting the next activity of a running process is an important aspect of process management. Recently, artificial neural networks, so called deep-learning approaches, have been proposed to address this challenge. This demo paper…

External pilot trials of complex interventions are used to help determine if and how a confirmatory trial should be undertaken, providing estimates of parameters such as recruitment, retention and adherence rates. The decision to progress…

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

The research on developing software defect prediction (SDP) models is targeted at reducing the workload on the tester and, thereby, the time spent on the targeted module. However, while a considerable amount of research has been done on…

Gaussian process emulators of computationally expensive computer codes provide fast statistical approximations to model physical processes. The training of these surrogates depends on the set of design points chosen to run the simulator.…

In many applications involving spatial point patterns, we find evidence of inhibition or repulsion. The most commonly used class of models for such settings are the Gibbs point processes. A recent alternative, at least to the statistical…

When applying Machine Learning techniques to problems, one must select model parameters to ensure that the system converges but also does not become stuck at the objective function's local minimum. Tuning these parameters becomes a…

When partitioning workflows in realistic scenarios, the knowledge of the processing units is often vague or unknown. A naive approach to addressing this issue is to perform many controlled experiments for different workloads, each…

Through a straightforward Bayesian approach we show that under some general conditions a maximum running time, namely the number of discrete steps performed by a computer program during its execution, can be defined such that the…

Gamma process has been extensively used to model monotone degradation data. Statistical inference for the gamma process is difficult due to the complex parameter structure involved in the likelihood function. In this paper, we derive a…

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…