相关论文: About incoherent inference

Simulation models for pedestrian crowds are a ubiquitous tool in research and industry. It is crucial that the parameters of these models are calibrated carefully and ultimately it will be of interest to compare competing models to decide…

With larger data at their disposal, scientists are emboldened to tackle complex questions that require sophisticated statistical models. It is not unusual for the latter to have likelihood functions that elude analytical formulations. Even…

The past decades have seen enormous improvements in computational inference based on statistical models, with continual enhancement in a wide range of computational tools, in competition. In Bayesian inference, first and foremost, MCMC…

Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models…

This note describes the results of some tests of the ABC-PRC algorithm of Sissons et al. (PNAS, 2007), and demonstrates with a toy example that the method does not converge on the true posterior distribution.

A maximum likelihood methodology for a general class of models is presented, using an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The typical target of ABC methods are models with intractable likelihoods, and we combine an ABC-MCMC…

The 21st century has seen an enormous growth in the development and use of approximate Bayesian methods. Such methods produce computational solutions to certain intractable statistical problems that challenge exact methods like Markov chain…

We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We…

Decision-theoretic troubleshooting is one of the areas to which Bayesian networks can be applied. Given a probabilistic model of a malfunctioning man-made device, the task is to construct a repair strategy with minimal expected cost. The…

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…

By any account, the 1998 proof of the Kepler conjecture is complex. The thesis underlying this article is that the proof is complex because it is highly under-automated. Throughout that proof, manual procedures are used where automated ones…

We consider the asymptotic properties of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) for the realistic case of summary statistics with heterogeneous rates of convergence. We allow some statistics to converge faster than the ABC tolerance, other…

Cosmological inference becomes increasingly difficult when complex data-generating processes cannot be modeled by simple probability distributions. With the ever-increasing size of data sets in cosmology, there is increasing burden placed…

An important problem for HCI researchers is to estimate the parameter values of a cognitive model from behavioral data. This is a difficult problem, because of the substantial complexity and variety in human behavioral strategies. We report…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods have gained in their popularity over the last decade because they expand the horizon of Bayesian parameter inference methods to the range of models for which only forward simulation is…

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…

The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric…

Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a method to obtain a posterior distribution without a likelihood function, using simulations and a set of distance metrics. For that reason, it has recently been gaining popularity as an analysis…

Finite mixture models are used in statistics and other disciplines, but inference for mixture models is challenging due, in part, to the multimodality of the likelihood function and the so-called label switching problem. We propose…