相关论文: Objective Probabilistic Forecasts of Future Climat…

Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior. The calculations involved in determining the prior can then…

We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has been considered…

While Jeffreys priors usually are well-defined for the parameters of mixtures of distributions, they are not available in closed form. Furthermore, they often are improper priors. Hence, they have never been used to draw inference on the…

While Jeffreys priors usually are well-defined for the parameters of mixtures of distributions, they are not available in closed form. Furthermore, they often are improper priors. Hence, they have never been used to draw inference on the…

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

Study of the bivariate normal distribution raises the full range of issues involving objective Bayesian inference, including the different types of objective priors (e.g., Jeffreys, invariant, reference, matching), the different modes of…

Bayesian methods are increasingly applied in these days in the theory and practice of statistics. Any Bayesian inference depends on a likelihood and a prior. Ideally one would like to elicit a prior from related sources of information or…

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

The construction of objective priors is, at best, challenging for multidimensional parameter spaces. A common practice is to assume independence and set up the joint prior as the product of marginal distributions obtained via "standard"…

Motivated by the statistical evaluation of complex computer models, we deal with the issue of objective prior specification for the parameters of Gaussian processes. In particular, we derive the Jeffreys-rule, independence Jeffreys and…

For many years it was routine to use equal model prior probabilities in Bayesian model uncertainty analysis. At least twenty years ago it became clear that this was problematic, leading to support of much too large models in the…

We derive the Jeffreys prior for the parameter of the Multivariate Ewens Distribution and study some of its properties. In particular, we show that this prior is proper and has no finite moments. We also investigate the impact of this…

Objective priors for sequential experiments are considered. Common priors, such as the Jeffreys prior and the reference prior, will typically depend on the stopping rule used for the sequential experiment. New expressions for reference…

In multi-parameter models, reference priors typically depend on the parameter or quantity of interest, and it is well known that this is necessary to produce objective posterior distributions with optimal properties. There are, however,…

In our contemporary era, meteorological weather forecasts increasingly incorporate ensemble predictions of visibility - a parameter of great importance in aviation, maritime navigation, and air quality assessment, with direct implications…

Bayesian parameter inference depends on a choice of prior probability distribution for the parameters in question. The prior which makes the posterior distribution maximally sensitive to data is called the Jeffreys prior, and it is…

In this paper, we consider objective Bayesian inference of the generalized exponential distribution using the independence Jeffreys prior and validate the propriety of the posterior distribution under a family of structured priors. We…

Prior distributions elicited for modelling the natural fluctuations or the uncertainty on parameters of Bayesian fishery population models, can be chosen among a vast range of statistical laws. Since the statistical framework is defined by…

I review the problem of the choice of the priors from the point of view of a physicist interested in measuring a physical quantity, and I try to show that the reference priors often recommended for the purpose (Jeffreys priors) do not fit…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…