相关论文: A Quantum-Conceptual Explanation of Violations of …
The 'expected utility hypothesis' is one of the foundations of classical approaches to economics and decision theory and Savage's 'Sure-Thing Principle' is a fundamental element of it. It has been put forward that real-life situations…
The 'expected utility hypothesis' and 'Savage's Sure-Thing Principle' are violated in real life decisions, as shown by the 'Allais' and 'Ellsberg paradoxes'. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely…
We prove a theorem which shows that a collection of experimental data of probabilistic weights related to decisions with respect to situations and their disjunction cannot be modeled within a classical probabilistic weight structure in case…
The Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes show that the expected utility hypothesis and Savage's Sure-Thing Principle are violated in real life decisions. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely accepted. On the…
In this paper we extend Savage's theory of decision-making under uncertainty from a classical environment into a non-classical one. We formulate the corresponding axioms and provide representation theorems for qualitative measures and…
One of the most complex systems is the human brain whose formalized functioning is characterized by decision theory. We present a "Quantum Decision Theory" of decision making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces.…
Expected utility theory (EUT) is widely used in economic theory. However, its subjective probability formulation, first elaborated by Savage, is linked to Ellsberg-like paradoxes and ambiguity aversion. This has led various scholars to work…
We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions,…
The disjunction effect in human decision making is often taken to show that the classical law of total probability is violated, motivating quantum-like models. We re-examine this claim for the Prisoner's Dilemma disjunction effect. Under…
{\it Ellsberg thought experiments} and empirical confirmation of Ellsberg preferences pose serious challenges to {\it subjective expected utility theory} (SEUT). We have recently elaborated a quantum-theoretic framework for human decisions…
We present a new experiment demonstrating destructive interference in customers' estimates of conditional probabilities of product failure. We take the perspective of a manufacturer of consumer products, and consider two situations of cause…
The broader scope of our investigations is the search for the way in which concepts and their combinations carry and influence meaning and what this implies for human thought. More specifically, we examine the use of the mathematical…
The 'conjunction fallacy' has been extensively debated by scholars in cognitive science and, in recent times, the discussion has been enriched by the proposal of modeling the fallacy using the quantum formalism. Two major quantum approaches…
The famous Saint Petersburg Paradox (St. Petersburg Paradox) shows that the theory of expected value does not capture the real-world economics of decision-making problems. Over the years, many economic theories were developed to resolve the…
Since Leonard Savage's epoch-making "Foundations of Statistics", Subjective Expected Utility Theory has been the presumptive model for decision-making. Savage provided an act-based axiomatization of standard expected utility theory. In this…
The Prisoner's Dilemma game (PDG) is one of the simple test-beds for the probabilistic nature of the human decision-making process. Behavioral experiments have been conducted on this game for decades and show a violation of the so-called…
Motivated by several classic decision-theoretic paradoxes, and by analogies with the paradoxes which in physics motivated the development of quantum mechanics, we introduce a projective generalization of expected utility along the lines of…
The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical probability laws. In this paper, a new quantum dynamic belief…
In the present article we consider the conjunction fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum…
In the present article we consider the conjunction fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum…