相关论文: Error-free milestones in error prone measurements

We study a high-dimensional regression setting under the assumption of known covariate distribution. We aim at estimating the amount of explained variation in the response by the best linear function of the covariates (the signal level). In…

Predictive mean matching (PMM) is a popular imputation strategy that imputes missing values by borrowing observed values from other cases with similar expectations. We show that, unlike other imputation strategies, PMM is not guaranteed to…

The predictability of errors in deterministic temperature forecasts is investigated. More precisely, the aim is to issue warnings whenever the differences between forecast and verification exceed a given threshold. The warnings are…

Measurement error in the observed values of the variables can greatly change the output of various causal discovery methods. This problem has received much attention in multiple fields, but it is not clear to what extent the causal model…

This paper introduces a statistical test inferring whether a variable allows separating two classes by means of a single critical value. Its test statistic is the prediction error of a nonparametric threshold classifier. While this approach…

In many scientific and data-driven applications, machine learning models are increasingly used as measurement instruments, rather than merely as predictors of predefined labels. When the measurement function is learned from data, the…

For the last two decades, high-dimensional data and methods have proliferated throughout the literature. Yet, the classical technique of linear regression has not lost its usefulness in applications. In fact, many high-dimensional…

Variance in predictions across different trained models is a significant, under-explored source of error in fair binary classification. In practice, the variance on some data examples is so large that decisions can be effectively arbitrary.…

We compute bias, variance, and approximate confidence intervals for the efficiency of a random selection process under various special conditions that occur in practical data analysis. We consider the following cases: a) the number of…

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from…

The term ``empirical predictor'' refers to a two-stage predictor of a linear combination of fixed and random effects. In the first stage, a predictor is obtained but it involves unknown parameters; thus, in the second stage, the unknown…

Measurement error can often be harmful when estimating causal effects. Two scenarios in which this is the case are in the estimation of (a) the average treatment effect when confounders are measured with error and (b) the natural indirect…

Measuring dependence between two events, or equivalently between two binary random variables, amounts to expressing the dependence structure inherent in a $2\times 2$ contingency table in a real number between $-1$ and $1$. Countless such…

The field of distribution-free predictive inference provides tools for provably valid prediction without any assumptions on the distribution of the data, which can be paired with any regression algorithm to provide accurate and reliable…

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

A fundamental task in statistical learning is quantifying the joint dependence or association between two continuous random variables. We introduce a novel, fully non-parametric measure that assesses the degree of association between…

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound).…

The empirical Bayes estimators in mixed models are useful for small area estimation in the sense of increasing precision of prediction for small area means, and one wants to know the prediction errors of the empirical Bayes estimators based…

This paper is concerned with detecting the presence of out of sample predictability in linear predictive regressions with a potentially large set of candidate predictors. We propose a procedure based on out of sample MSE comparisons that is…

We consider building predictors when the data have missing values. We study the seemingly-simple case where the target to predict is a linear function of the fully-observed data and we show that, in the presence of missing values, the…