相关论文: Scaling of Tropical-Cyclone Dissipation

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the…

It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm…

Genesis potential indices (GPIs) are widely used to understand the climatology of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the sign of projected future changes depends on how they incorporate environmental moisture. Recent theory combines…

Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…

An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…

Traditional methods for enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from climate model outputs or projections have primarily relied on either dynamical or statistical downscaling. With recent advances in deep learning (DL) techniques, a…

Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…

Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…

A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…

The study of the rapid intensification process of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) is a current, yet lacking research topic in Mexico, where thermal and dynamic factors at the microscale and mesoscale fundamentally intervene. Due to the little…

Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…

Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely…

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…

While water lifting plays a recognized role in the global atmospheric power budget, estimates for this role in tropical cyclones vary from no effect to a major reduction in storm intensity. To better assess this impact, here we consider the…

Our collective understanding of azimuthally-asymmetric features within the coherent structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) continues to improve with the availability of more detailed observations and high-resolution model outputs. However, a…

Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…

Hurricanes and, more generally, tropical cyclones (TCs) are rare, complex natural phenomena of both scientific and public interest. The importance of understanding TCs in a changing climate has increased as recent TCs have had devastating…

Studies on Sun-climate connection have been carried out for several decades, and almost all of them focused on the effects of solar total irradiation energy. As the second major terrestrial energy source from outer space, the solar wind…

Rapid intensification (RI) is likely the most crucial contributor to the development of strong tropical cyclones and the largest source of prediction error resulting in great threats to life and property, which can become more threatening…