相关论文: Excel Modelling - Transparency, Auditing and Busin…

It is often the case that risk assessment and prognostics are viewed as related but separate tasks. This chapter describes a risk-based approach to prognostics that seeks to provide a tighter coupling between risk assessment and fault…

In safe reinforcement learning (RL), auxiliary safety costs are used to align the agent to safe decision making. In practice, safety constraints, including cost functions and budgets, are unknown or hard to specify, as it requires…

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are known to play a vital role in economic growth, employment, and innovation. However, they tend to face significant challenges in accessing credit due to limited financial histories, collateral…

This paper maintains that archiving has been overlooked as a key spreadsheet internal control. The case of failed Jamaican commercial banks demonstrates how poor archiving can lead to weaknesses in spreadsheet control that contribute to…

The use of spreadsheets in industry is widespread. Companies base decisions on information coming from spreadsheets. Unfortunately, spreadsheets are error-prone and this increases the risk that companies base their decisions on inaccurate…

Corporate credit rating (CCR) plays a very important role in the process of contemporary economic and social development. How to use credit rating methods for enterprises has always been a problem worthy of discussion. Through reading and…

Regulatory stress tests have become one of the main tools for setting capital requirements at the largest U.S. banks. The Federal Reserve uses confidential models to evaluate bank-specific outcomes for bank-specific portfolios in shared…

Lending decisions are usually made with proprietary models that provide minimally acceptable explanations to users. In a future world without such secrecy, what decision support tools would one want to use for justified lending decisions?…

Most organizations today use spreadsheets in some form or another to support critical business processes. However the financial resources, and developmental rigor dedicated to them are often minor in comparison to other enterprise…

The construction of computer models (mathematical models implemented in computer codes), with respect to observed phenomena, is usually undertaken by building different variants depending on modeller sensibility, and choosing the one…

The paper provides an algorithm for the risk estimation when a company selects an outsourcing service provider for innovation product. Calculations are based on expert surveys conducted among customers and among providers of outsourcing.…

Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure,…

In strategic classification, an institution (e.g., a bank) anticipates adaptation from users who change their features to increase utility in a classification task (e.g., loan repayment). Since a key challenge is the distribution shift…

Credit risk modeling has permeated our everyday life. Most banks and financial companies use this technique to model their clients' trustworthiness. While machine learning is increasingly used in this field, the resulting large-scale…

We present a macroeconomic agent-based model that combines several mechanisms operating at the same timescale, while remaining mathematically tractable. It comprises enterprises and workers who compete in a job market and a commodity goods…

Advanced classification algorithms are being increasingly used in safety-critical applications like health-care, engineering, etc. In such applications, miss-classifications made by ML algorithms can result in substantial financial or…

Organizations that develop software have recognized that software process models are particularly useful for maintaining a high standard of quality. In the last decade, simulations of software processes were used in several settings and…

We set up a structural model to study credit risk for a portfolio containing several or many credit contracts. The model is based on a jump--diffusion process for the risk factors, i.e. for the company assets. We also include correlations…

Survival analysis, or time-to-event analysis, is an important and widespread problem in healthcare research. Medical research has traditionally relied on Cox models for survival analysis, due to their simplicity and interpretability. Cox…

Assessment of risk levels for existing credit accounts is important to the implementation of bank policies and offering financial products. This paper uses cluster analysis of behaviour of credit card accounts to help assess credit risk…