相关论文: Checking election outcome accuracy Post-election a…

Predicting the winner of an election is a favorite problem both for news media pundits and computational social choice theorists. Since it is often infeasible to elicit the preferences of all the voters in a typical prediction scenario, a…

Despite extensive theoretical research on proportionality in approval-based multiwinner voting, its impact on which committees and candidates can be selected in practice remains poorly understood. We address this gap by (i) analyzing the…

This paper develops a new approach to post-selection inference for screening high-dimensional predictors of survival outcomes. Post-selection inference for right-censored outcome data has been investigated in the literature, but much…

We develop several tools for the determination of sample size and design for Medicaid and healthcare audits. The goal of these audits is to examine a population of claims submitted by a healthcare provider for reimbursement by a third party…

The quality of a summarization evaluation metric is quantified by calculating the correlation between its scores and human annotations across a large number of summaries. Currently, it is unclear how precise these correlation estimates are,…

We provide practical, efficient, and nonparametric methods for auditing the fairness of deployed classification and regression models. Whereas previous work relies on a fixed-sample size, our methods are sequential and allow for the…

Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are an increasingly important method for checking that the reported outcome of an election is, in fact, correct. Indeed, their use is increasingly being legislated. While effective methods for RLAs have been…

For randomized controlled trials to be conclusive, it is important to set the target sample size accurately at the design stage. Comparing two normal populations, the sample size calculation requires specification of the variance other than…

In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection…

We study the multifaceted question of how to sample approval elections in a meaningful way. Our analysis aims to discern the properties of various statistical cultures (both established and new ones). Based on the map-of-elections framework…

We first review existing sequential methods for estimating a binomial proportion. Afterward, we propose a new family of group sequential sampling schemes for estimating a binomial proportion with prescribed margin of error and confidence…

We present novel methods for predicting the outcome of large elections. Our first algorithm uses a diffusion process to model the time uncertainty inherent in polls taken with substantial calendar time left to the election. Our second model…

The paper illustrates an application of the Resampling approach [2] for the estimation of the aircraft circulation plan reliability. Resampling is an intensive computer statistical method, which can be used effectively in the case of small…

In this paper, we develop an exact method for the determination of the minimum sample size for estimating the proportion of a finite population with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. By characterizing the behavior of the…

Purchase data from retail chains provide proxy measures of private household expenditure on items that are the most troublesome to collect in the traditional expenditure survey. Due to the sheer amount of proxy data, the bias due to…

Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) can provide routine, affirmative evidence that reported election outcomes are correct by checking a random sample of cast ballots. An efficient RLA requires checking relatively few ballots. Here we construct…

We point out that the ideas underlying some test procedures recently proposed for testing post-model-selection (and for some other test problems) in the econometrics literature have been around for quite some time in the statistics…

We show how to use automated computation of election margins to assess the number of votes that would need to change in order to alter a parliamentary outcome for single-member preferential electorates. In the context of increasing…

In this paper, we develop an approach for the exact determination of the minimum sample size for the estimation of a Poisson parameter with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. The exact computation is made possible by reducing…

In the last fifteen the subset sampling method has often been used in reliability problems as a tool for calculating small probabilities. This method is extrapolating from an initial Monte Carlo estimate for the probability content of a…