相关论文: Icequakes as precursors of ice avalanches
A hanging glacier at the east face of Weisshorn (Switzerland) broke off in 2005. We were able to monitor and measure surface motion and icequake activity for 25 days up to three days prior to the break-off. The analysis of seismic waves…
Mechanical and sliding instabilities are the two processes which may lead to breaking off events of large ice masses. Mechanical instabilities mainly affect unbalanced cold hanging glaciers. For the latter case, a prediction could be…
The Altels hanging glacier broke off on September 11, 1895. The ice volume of this catastrophic rupture was estimated at $\rm 4.10^6$ cubic meters and is the largest ever observed ice fall event in the Alps. The causes of this collapse are…
In line of the intermediate-term monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the world largest earthquakes the seismic dynamics of the Earth's lithosphere is analysed as a single whole, which is the ultimate scale of the complex…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the…
The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are…
We analyse the statistical pattern of seismicity before a 1-2 103 m3 chalk cliff collapse on the Normandie ocean shore, Western France. We show that a power law acceleration of seismicity rate and energy in both 40 Hz-1.5 kHz and 2 Hz-10kHz…
Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…
The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the…
We present a simple model of earthquakes on a pre-existing hierarchical fault network. The system self-organizes on long time scales in a stationary state with a power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes. The largest…
Of particular interest is the detection of precursors of an impending rupture. Theoretical, numerical studies along with laboratory experiments indicate that precursory signs of an impending failure are the sudden drop of fractal dimension…
Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes…
It is tested whether past abrupt climate changes support the validity of statistical early-warning signals (EWS) as predictor of future climate tipping points. EWS are expected increases in amplitude and correlation of fluctuations driven…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
It is useful to consider the earthquakes in terms of catastrophe theory. In the paper, we illustrate this statement by analysis foreshocks preceding the strong earthquakes. We focused on the so-called catastrophe flags, and on the triggers…
Recent experiments indicate that frictional sliding occurs by the nucleation of detachment fronts at the contact interface that may appear well before the onset of global sliding. This intriguing precursory activity is not accounted for by…
Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquake have been reported over centuries. Radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes, earthquake lights near the epicenter are recognized as pre-earthquake signals to approach…
Numerous systems ranging from deformation of materials to earthquakes exhibit bursty dynamics, which consist of a sequence of events with a broad event size distribution. Very often these events are observed to be temporally correlated or…
The article discusses the possibilities of three-step early warning and short-term prediction of earthquakes based on the classical geological model of fault formation and a model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected…