相关论文: The formal definition of reference priors

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to…

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Differential analysis is a routine procedure in the statistical analysis toolbox across many applied fields, including quantitative proteomics, the main illustration of the present paper. The state-of-the-art limma approach uses a…

Objective Bayesian inference procedures are derived for the parameters of the multivariate random effects model generalized to elliptically contoured distributions. The posterior for the overall mean vector and the between-study covariance…

One can argue that one of the main roles of the subject of statistics is to characterize what the evidence in collected data says about questions of scientific interest. There are two broad questions that we will refer to as the estimation…

The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…

We study belief revision when information is represented by a set of probability distributions, or general information. General information extends the standard event notion while including qualitative information (A is more likely than B),…

The choice of priors may become an insoluble problem if priors and Bayes' rule are not seen and accepted in the framework of subjectivism. Therefore, the meaning and the role of subjectivity in science is considered and defended from the…

Confidence sequences are collections of confidence regions that simultaneously cover the true parameter for every sample size at a prescribed confidence level. Tightening these sequences is of practical interest and can be achieved by…

Variable selection, or more generally, model reduction is an important aspect of the statistical workflow aiming to provide insights from data. In this paper, we discuss and demonstrate the benefits of using a reference model in variable…

A great deal of inference in statistics is based on making the approximation that a statistic is normally distributed. The error in doing so is generally $O(n^{-1/2})$ and can be very considerable when the distribution is heavily biased or…

Relative belief inferences are shown to arise as Bayes rules or limiting Bayes rules. These inferences are invariant under reparameterizations and possess a number of optimal properties. In particular, relative belief inferences are based…

In designed experiments and surveys, known laws or design feat ures provide checks on the most relevant aspects of a model and identify the target parameters. In contrast, in most observational studies in the health and social sciences, the…

Bayesian Belief Networks have been largely overlooked by Expert Systems practitioners on the grounds that they do not correspond to the human inference mechanism. In this paper, we introduce an explanation mechanism designed to generate…

It is recognised that the Bayesian approach to inference can not adequately cope with all the types of pre-data beliefs about population quantities of interest that are commonly held in practice. In particular, it generally encounters…

The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…

A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…

Inference after model selection has been an active research topic in the past few years, with numerous works offering different approaches to addressing the perils of the reuse of data. In particular, major progress has been made recently…

Recently, recommender system (RS) based on causal inference has gained much attention in the industrial community, as well as the states of the art performance in many prediction and debiasing tasks. Nevertheless, a unified causal analysis…