相关论文: State-space based mass event-history model I: many…

We introduce a stochastic principal-agent model. A principal and an agent interact in a stochastic environment, each privy to observations about the state not available to the other. The principal has the power of commitment, both to elicit…

The dynamics of opinion formation in large groups of people is a complex non-linear phenomenon whose investigation is just at the beginning. Both collective behaviour and personal view play an important role in this mechanism. In the…

How should one leverage historical data when past observations are not perfectly indicative of the future, e.g., due to the presence of unobserved confounders which one cannot "correct" for? Motivated by this question, we study a…

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

Understanding the principles of real-world biological multi-agent behaviors is a current challenge in various scientific and engineering fields. The rules regarding the real-world biological multi-agent behaviors such as team sports are…

A researcher observes a finite sequence of choices made by multiple agents in a binary-state environment. Agents maximize expected utilities that depend on their chosen alternative and the unknown underlying state. Agents learn about the…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…

In most contemporary approaches to decision making, a decision problem is described by a sets of states and set of outcomes, and a rich set of acts, which are functions from states to outcomes over which the decision maker (DM) has…

Assessing the synergistic high-order behaviors (HOBs) that emerge from underlying structural mechanisms is crucial to characterize complex systems. This work leverages the combined use of predictability and information measures to detect…

This article addresses the problem of state observer design for continuous-time linear positive networked systems. Considering the bandwidth constraint in the communication network, an event-measurement-based positive observer design is…

To analyze high-dimensional systems, many fields in science and engineering rely on high-level descriptions, sometimes called "macrostates," "coarse-grainings," or "effective theories". Examples of such descriptions include the…

We describe a computational framework for modeling and statistical inference on high-dimensional stochastic dynamic systems. Our primary motivation is the investigation of metapopulation dynamics arising from a collection of spatially…

Systematic exploration of Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is challenged by the curse of dimensionality and their inherent stochasticity. We present a multi-stage pipeline integrating the systematic design of experiments with machine learning…

The planning domain has experienced increased interest in the formal synthesis of decision-making policies. This formal synthesis typically entails finding a policy which satisfies formal specifications in the form of some well-defined…

While the conditional sequence modeling with the transformer architecture has demonstrated its effectiveness in dealing with offline reinforcement learning (RL) tasks, it is struggle to handle out-of-distribution states and actions.…

The rapidly growing field of network analytics requires data sets for use in evaluation. Real world data often lack truth and simulated data lack narrative fidelity or statistical generality. This paper presents a novel, mixed-membership,…

Despite increasing attention paid to the need for fast, scalable methods to analyze next-generation neuroscience data, comparatively little attention has been paid to the development of similar methods for behavioral analysis. Just as the…

Neutral models aspire to explain biodiversity patterns in ecosystems where species difference can be neglected, as it might occur at a specific trophic level, and perfect symmetry is assumed between species. Voter-like models capture the…

Literatures in state space models focus on parametric inference and prediction, which fail if the state space model is not fully specified and the maximum likelihood estimation does not work. In this paper, we assume the state transition…