相关论文: Eventological theory of decision making for stock …

We prove the eventological $H$-theorem that complements the Boltzmann H-theorem from statistical mechanics and serves as a mathematical excuse (mathematically no less convincing than the Boltzmann H-theorem for the second law of…

In decision theory an act is a function from a set of conditions to the set of real numbers. The set of conditions is a partition in some algebra of events. The expected value of an act can be calculated when a probability measure is given.…

Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The…

Decision markets are mechanisms for selecting one among a set of actions based on forecasts about their consequences. Decision markets that are based on scoring rules have been proven to offer incentive compatibility analogous to properly…

Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action…

In this communication, some economic models given by functional mappings are addressed. These are models for random markets where agents trade by pairs and exchange their money in a random and conservative way. They display the exponential…

We develop a theory of estimation when in addition to a sample of $n$ observed outcomes the underlying probabilities of the observed outcomes are known, as is typically the case in the context of numerical simulation modeling, e.g. in…

When making decisions under risk, people often exhibit behaviors that classical economic theories cannot explain. Newer models that attempt to account for these irrational behaviors often lack neuroscience bases and require the introduction…

Several theoretical results concerning event-by-event fluctuations are discussed: (1) a role of the global conservation laws and concept of statistical ensembles; (2) strongly intensive measures are introduced; they give a possibility to…

An approach is presented treating decision theory as a probabilistic theory based on quantum techniques. Accurate definitions are given and thorough analysis is accomplished for the quantum probabilities describing the choice between…

It is reported that financial news, especially financial events expressed in news, provide information to investors' long/short decisions and influence the movements of stock markets. Motivated by this, we leverage financial event streams…

This article introduces a new method for eliciting prior distributions from experts. The method models an expert decision-making process to infer a prior probability distribution for a rare event $A$. More specifically, assuming there…

Decision-making under uncertainty and causal thinking are fundamental aspects of intelligent reasoning. Decision-making has been well studied when the available information is considered at the associative (probabilistic) level. The…

In real-world scenario, many phenomena produce a collection of events that occur in continuous time. Point Processes provide a natural mathematical framework for modeling these sequences of events. In this survey, we investigate…

We live in a world brimming with uncertainty, where we constantly have to make a lot of decisions under incomplete information. We are firm believers that our subjective belief cannot be computed by rigorous mathematical formula; instead…

The objective of this paper is to propose a method that will generate a causal explanation of observed events in an uncertain world and then make decisions based on that explanation. Feedback can cause the explanation and decisions to be…

The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

New in the probability theory and eventology theory, the concept of Kopula (eventological copula) is introduced. The theorem on the characterization of the sets of events by Kopula is proved, which serves as the eventological pre-image of…

There are two possible ways of interpreting the seemingly stochastic nature of financial markets: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and a set of stylized facts that drive the behavior of the markets. We show evidence for some of the…

Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and…