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We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global…

Pandemic influenza has great potential to cause large and rapid increases in deaths and serious illness. The objective of this paper is to develop an agent-based model to simulate the spread of pandemic influenza (novel H1N1) in Egypt. The…

Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…

Background: Globally, influenza is a major cause of morbidity, hospitalization and mortality. Influenza vaccination has shown substantial protective effectiveness in the United States. We investigated state-level patterns of coverage rates…

Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current…

Public health surveillance systems often fail to detect emerging infectious diseases, particularly in resource limited settings. By integrating relevant clinical and internet-source data, we can close critical gaps in coverage and…

This is part of a series of weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present results of forecasts initiated following assimilation of observations for Week 1 (i.e. the forecast begins January 6, 2013)…

Early prediction of the prevalence of influenza reduces its impact. Various studies have been conducted to predict the number of influenza-infected people. However, these studies are not highly accurate especially in the distant future such…

A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…

Consider a birth and death chain to model the number of types of a given virus. Each type gives birth to a new type at rate $\lambda$ and dies at rate 1. Each type is also assigned a fitness. When a death occurs either the least fit type…

Understanding the origin of infectious diseases provides scientifically based rationales for implementing public health measures that may help to avoid or mitigate future epidemics. The recent ancestors of a pandemic virus provide…

Each year, seasonal influenza epidemics cause hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide and put high loads on health care systems. A main concern for resource planning is the risk of exceptionally severe epidemics. Taking advantage of…

For nearly a century, the initial reproduction number (R0) has been used as a one number summary to compare outbreaks of infectious disease, yet there is no `standard' estimator for R0. Difficulties in estimating R0 arise both from how a…

On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data…

Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza show that the growth rate of the number of infected individuals can increase passing from one exponential growth rate to another one with a larger exponent. Such behavior is not described by…

In temperate climates, mortality is seasonal with a winter-dominant pattern, due in part to pneumonia and influenza. Cardiac causes, which are the leading cause of death in the United States, are also winter-seasonal although it is not…

Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading…

We review several models for pandemics that plagued the USA and the world in the past decade. Methods of data fitting are reviewed and several types of microscopic and rate equation models are discussed and numerically solved. This paper…

Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spread through the world. The model combines the SEIR-based model for…

A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…