相关论文: Inferring population history with DIYABC: a user-f…

In this paper we develop a likelihood-free approach for population calibration, which involves finding distributions of model parameters when fed through the model produces a set of outputs that matches available population data. Unlike…

Microsimulation models (MSMs) are used to predict population-level effects of health care policies by simulating individual-level outcomes. Simulated outcomes are governed by unknown parameters that are chosen so that the model accurately…

We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized…

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Statistical analysis of DNA mixtures is known to pose computational challenges due to the enormous state space of possible DNA profiles. We propose a Bayesian network representation for genotypes, allowing computations to be performed…

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

Almost all fields of science rely upon statistical inference to estimate unknown parameters in theoretical and computational models. While the performance of modern computer hardware continues to grow, the computational requirements for the…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular sampling method in applications involving intractable likelihood functions. Without evaluating the likelihood function, ABC approximates the posterior distribution by the set of accepted…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

Citizen science databases that consist of volunteer-led sampling efforts of species communities are relied on as essential sources of data in ecology. Summarizing such data across counties with frequentist-valid prediction sets for each…

Over the past decade, the field of forensic science has received recommendations from the National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the U.S. President's…

Generalized Bayesian inference (GBI) is an alternative inference framework motivated by robustness to modeling errors, where a specific loss function is used to link the model parameters with observed data, instead of the log-likelihood…

Semiconductor device models are essential to understand the charge transport in thin film transistors (TFTs). Using these TFT models to draw inference involves estimating parameters used to fit to the experimental data. These experimental…

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

Recovery of population size history from molecular sequence data is an important problem in population genetics. Inference commonly relies on a coalescent model linking the population size history to genealogies. The high computational cost…

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimised software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the…

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for inferring posterior distributions encoded by probabilistic programs featuring possibly unbounded loops. Our method is built on a denotational semantics represented by probability generating…

This document is due to appear as a chapter of the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) by S. Sisson, L. Fan, and M. Beaumont. Here we describe some of the circumstances under which statistical ecologists might…