相关论文: Controlled stratification for quantile estimation

This paper investigates the use of stratified sampling as a variance reduction technique for approximating integrals over large dimensional spaces. The accuracy of this method critically depends on the choice of the space partition, the…

A new approach of obtaining stratified random samples from statistically dependent random variables is described. The proposed method can be used to obtain samples from the input space of a computer forward model in estimating expectations…

Stochastic simulation is a widely used method for estimating quantities in models of chemical reaction networks where uncertainty plays a crucial role. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires…

In this paper we suggest a modification of the regression-based variance reduction approach recently proposed in Belomestny et al. This modification is based on the stratification technique and allows for a further significant variance…

In statistics and machine learning, approximation of an intractable integration is often achieved by using the unbiased Monte Carlo estimator, but the variances of the estimation are generally high in many applications. Control variates…

The control variates method is a classical variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo estimators that exploits correlated auxiliary variables without introducing bias. In many applications, the quantity of interest can be expressed as a…

We consider the problem of propagating the uncertainty from a possibly large number of random inputs through a computationally expensive model. Stratified sampling is a well-known variance reduction strategy, but its application, thus far,…

Online controlled experiments, also known as A/B testing, are the digital equivalent of randomized controlled trials for estimating the impact of marketing campaigns on website visitors. Stratified sampling is a traditional technique for…

Calibrating simulation models that take large quantities of multi-dimensional data as input is a hard simulation optimization problem. Existing adaptive sampling strategies offer a methodological solution. However, they may not sufficiently…

We introduce adaptive sampling methods for stochastic programs with deterministic constraints. First, we propose and analyze a variant of the stochastic projected gradient method where the sample size used to approximate the reduced…

In this paper, we propose a stratified sampling algorithm in which the random drawings made in the strata to compute the expectation of interest are also used to adaptively modify the proportion of further drawings in each stratum. These…

Bayesian model comparison relies upon the model evidence, yet for many models of interest the model evidence is unavailable in closed form and must be approximated. Many of the estimators for evidence that have been proposed in the Monte…

Existing variance reduction techniques used in stochastic simulations for rare event analysis still require a substantial number of model evaluations to estimate small failure probabilities. In the context of complex, nonlinear finite…

Monte Carlo estimation in plays a crucial role in stochastic reaction networks. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires sampling a large number of trajectories. We propose control variates…

In this paper we examine quantile-stratified samples from a known univariate probability distribution, with stratification occurring over a partition of the quantile regions in the distribution. We examine some general properties of this…

This paper proposes an adaptive randomization procedure for two-stage randomized controlled trials. The method uses data from a first-wave experiment in order to determine how to stratify in a second wave of the experiment, where the…

A nonparametric procedure for robust regression estimation and for quantile regression is proposed which is completely data-driven and adapts locally to the regularity of the regression function. This is achieved by considering in each…

In this paper, we aim to compute numerical approximation integral by using an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling algorithm based on an iterative method which splits the strata following some quantities called…

Stratification and rerandomization are two well-known methods used in randomized experiments for balancing the baseline covariates. Renowned scholars in experimental design have recommended combining these two methods; however, limited…

We report on an empirical study of the main strategies for quantile regression in the context of stochastic computer experiments. To ensure adequate diversity, six metamodels are presented, divided into three categories based on order…