相关论文: Inference for stochastic volatility models using t…

We consider stochastic volatility models using piecewise constant parameters. We suggest a hybrid optimization algorithm for fitting the models to a volatility surface and provide some numerical results. Finally, we provide an outlook on…

Rough volatility models have recently been empirically shown to provide a good fit to historical volatility time series and implied volatility smiles of SPX options. They are continuous-time stochastic volatility models, whose volatility…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian approach. An important issue is how…

We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…

Given the importance of continuous-time stochastic volatility models to describe the dynamics of interest rates, we propose a goodness-of-fit test for the parametric form of the drift and diffusion functions, based on a marked empirical…

We prove bounds on the variance of a function $f$ under the empirical measure of the samples obtained by the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm, with time complexity depending on local rather than global Markov chain mixing dynamics.…

We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…

We introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal volatility model that extends traditional approaches by incorporating spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects, along with volatility-specific observed and latent factors. The model…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

We introduce a new algorithm for approximate inference that combines reparametrization, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We construct a very flexible implicit variational distribution synthesized by an arbitrary Markov…

Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…

In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…

Markov chain Monte Calro methods (MCMC) are commonly used in Bayesian statistics. In the last twenty years, many results have been established for the calculation of the exact convergence rate of MCMC methods. We introduce another rate of…

Simulation Based Calibration (SBC) is applied to analyse two commonly used, competing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the posterior distribution of a stochastic volatility model. In particular, the bespoke 'off-set…

Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) have been used extensively to model reliability of storage systems. While the exponentially distributed sojourn time of Markov models is widely known to be unrealistic (and it is necessary to consider…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are based on the construction of a Markov chain with transition probabilities leaving invariant a probability distribution of interest. In this work, we look at these transition probabilities as…

We develop the first exact Bayesian methodology for the problem of inference in discretely observed regime switching diffusions. Switching diffusion models extend ordinary diffusions by allowing for jumps in instantaneous drift and…