相关论文: A general dynamical statistical model with possibl…

We discuss causal mediation analyses for survival data and propose a new approach based on the additive hazards model. The emphasis is on a dynamic point of view, that is, understanding how the direct and indirect effects develop over time.…

In many application areas---lending, education, and online recommenders, for example---fairness and equity concerns emerge when a machine learning system interacts with a dynamically changing environment to produce both immediate and…

Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the…

This article studies the estimation of the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time-to-an-event or on some other continuously distributed outcome. The paper applies to the situation where treatment is repeatedly adapted to…

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Scientists often want to learn about cause and effect from hierarchical data, collected from subunits nested inside units. Consider students in schools, cells in patients, or cities in states. In such settings, unit-level variables (e.g.…

Perinatal epidemiology often aims to evaluate exposures on infant outcomes. When the exposure affects the composition of people who give birth to live infants (e.g., by affecting fertility, behavior, or birth outcomes), this "live birth…

Defining and identifying causal intervention effects for transmissible infectious disease outcomes is challenging because a treatment -- such as a vaccine -- given to one individual may affect the infection outcomes of others.…

This technical report describes the rationale and technical details for the dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes based upon a variety of timeseries data. It details the structure of the underlying convolution or…

Existing causal methods for time-varying exposure and time-varying confounding focus on estimating the average causal effect of a time-varying binary treatment on an end-of-study outcome, offering limited tools for characterizing marginal…

HIV dynamical models are often based on non-linear systems of ordinary differential equations (ODE), which do not have analytical solution. Introducing random effects in such models leads to very challenging non-linear mixed-effects models.…

There exist well-developed frameworks for causal modelling, but these require rather a lot of human domain expertise to define causal variables and perform interventions. In order to enable autonomous agents to learn abstract causal models…

Causal inference is the process of using assumptions, study designs, and estimation strategies to draw conclusions about the causal relationships between variables based on data. This allows researchers to better understand the underlying…

To represent the causal relationships between variables, a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is widely utilized in many areas, such as social sciences, epidemics, and genetics. Many causal structure learning approaches are developed to learn the…

The framework of causal models provides a principled approach to causal reasoning, applied today across many scientific domains. Here we present this framework in the language of string diagrams, interpreted formally using category theory.…

Discovering causal relationships from observational data is a challenging task that relies on assumptions connecting statistical quantities to graphical or algebraic causal models. In this work, we focus on widely employed assumptions for…

The standard approach to causal modelling especially in social and health sciences is the potential outcomes framework due to Neyman and Rubin. In this framework, observations are thought to be drawn from a distribution over variables of…

Directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models are a powerful tool for representing causal relationships among jointly distributed random variables, especially concerning data from across different experimental settings. However, it is not always…

In addition to efficient statistical estimators of a treatment's effect, successful application of causal inference requires specifying assumptions about the mechanisms underlying observed data and testing whether they are valid, and to…

In a previous paper [Pearl and Verma, 1991] we presented an algorithm for extracting causal influences from independence information, where a causal influence was defined as the existence of a directed arc in all minimal causal models…