相关论文: Magnitude Uncertainties Impact Seismic Rate Estima…

Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of…

Model explanations can be valuable for interpreting and debugging predictive models. We study a specific kind called Concept Explanations, where the goal is to interpret a model using human-understandable concepts. Although popular for…

We present an extension to the robust phase estimation protocol, which can identify incorrect results that would otherwise lie outside the expected statistical range. Robust phase estimation is increasingly a method of choice for…

Confidence estimation can improve the reliability of melody estimation by indicating which predictions are likely incorrect. The existing classification-based approach provides confidence for predicted pitch classes but fails to capture the…

The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data…

The remaining theoretical uncertainties from unknown higher-order corrections in the prediction for the light Higgs-boson mass of the MSSM are estimated. The uncertainties associated with three different approaches that are implemented in…

Bayesian inference can quantify uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks using posterior distributions for model parameters and network output. By looking at these posterior distributions, one can separate the origin of uncertainty…

Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…

This study examines the role of uncertainty estimation (UE) methods in multilingual text classification under noisy and non-topical conditions. Using a complex-vs-simple sentence classification task across several languages, we evaluate a…

There are strong incentives to build models that demonstrate outstanding predictive performance on various datasets and benchmarks. We believe these incentives risk a narrow focus on models and on the performance metrics used to evaluate…

In model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, using noisy value estimates to supervise policy evaluation and optimization is detrimental to the sample efficiency. As this noise is heteroscedastic, its effects can be mitigated…

State estimators often provide self-assessed uncertainty metrics, such as covariance matrices, whose credibility is critical for downstream tasks. However, these self-assessments can be misleading due to underlying modeling violations like…

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…

This paper introduces a new approach to quantify the impact of forward propagated demand and weather uncertainty on power system planning and operation models. Recent studies indicate that such sampling uncertainty, originating from demand…

Pairwise comparisons are widely used in decision analysis, preference modeling, and evaluation problems. In many practical situations, the observed comparison matrix is not reciprocal. This lack of reciprocity is often treated as a defect…

Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications. A common approach is to use the predictive distribution from Bayesian or approximation models and…

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

The measurement outcomes of two incompatible observables on a particle can be precisely predicted when it is maximally entangled with a quantum memory, as quantified recently [Nature Phys. 6, 659 (2010)]. We explore the behavior of the…

When fitting generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), one important decision to make relates to the choice of the random effects distribution. As the random effects are unobserved, misspecification of this distribution is a real…

We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…