相关论文: On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation

Modern statistical software and machine learning libraries are enabling semi-automated statistical inference. Within this context, it appears easier and easier to try and fit many models to the data at hand, reversing thereby the Fisherian…

In Bayesian classification, it is important to establish a probabilistic model for each class for likelihood estimation. Most of the previous methods modeled the probability distribution in the whole sample space. However, real-world…

Bayesian networks provide a powerful tool for reasoning about probabilistic causation, used in many areas of science. They are, however, intrinsically classical. In particular, Bayesian networks naturally yield the Bell inequalities.…

Bayesian modeling provides a principled approach to quantifying uncertainty in model parameters and model structure and has seen a surge of applications in recent years. Within the context of a Bayesian workflow, we are concerned with model…

Neural networks have achieved remarkable performance across various problem domains, but their widespread applicability is hindered by inherent limitations such as overconfidence in predictions, lack of interpretability, and vulnerability…

Next-item prediction is a a popular problem in the recommender systems domain. As the name suggests, the task is to recommend subsequent items that a user would be interested in given contextual information and historical interaction data.…

In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Models for categorical sequences typically assume exchangeable or first-order dependent sequence elements. These are common assumptions, for example, in models of computer malware traces and protein sequences. Although such simplifying…

Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian…

We propose a general framework for constructing powerful, sequential hypothesis tests for a large class of nonparametric testing problems. The null hypothesis for these problems is defined in an abstract form using the action of two known…

In the modern Bayesian view classical probability theory is simply an extension of conventional logic, i.e., a quantitative tool that allows for consistent reasoning in the presence of uncertainty. Classical theory presupposes, however,…

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Identifying small subsets of features that are relevant for prediction and/or classification tasks is a central problem in machine learning and statistics. The feature selection task is especially important, and computationally difficult,…

We propose a unifying framework for methods that perform probabilistic online learning in non-stationary environments. We call the framework BONE, which stands for generalised (B)ayesian (O)nline learning in (N)on-stationary (E)nvironments.…

Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

We present a computational framework for efficient learning, sampling, and distribution of general Bayesian posterior distributions. The framework leverages a machine learning approach for the construction of normalizing flows for the…

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks. (1) Neural networks are typically…

Bayesian optimization is a popular tool for data-efficient optimization of expensive objective functions. In real-life applications like engineering design, the designer often wants to take multiple objectives as well as input uncertainty…