相关论文: Embedding Population Dynamics Models in Inference

Deep learning offers promising new ways to accurately model aleatoric uncertainty in robotic state estimation systems, particularly when the uncertainty distributions do not conform to traditional assumptions of being fixed and Gaussian. In…

An organism that is newly introduced into an existing population has a survival probability that is dependent on both the population density of its environment and the competition it experiences with the members of that population.…

Promoting and increasing energy efficiency is a promising method of reducing CO2 emissions and avoiding the potentially devastating effects of climate change. The question is: How do we induce a cultural or behavioural change whereby people…

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such…

We present a numerical method for learning the dynamics of slow components of unknown multiscale stochastic dynamical systems. While the governing equations of the systems are unknown, bursts of observation data of the slow variables are…

A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-specific demographic schedules. The…

Frequently in socio-environmental sciences, models are used as tools to represent, understand, project and predict the behaviour of these complex systems. Along the modelling chain, Good Modelling Practices have been evolving that ensure -…

The complex interplay between human societies and their environments has long been a subject of fascination for social scientists. Utilizing agent-based modeling, this study delves into the profound implications of seemingly inconsequential…

We study the problem of non-Bayesian social learning with uncertain models, in which a network of agents seek to cooperatively identify the state of the world based on a sequence of observed signals. In contrast with the existing…

Climate-economic modeling under uncertainty presents significant computational challenges that may limit policymakers' ability to address climate change effectively. This paper explores neural network-based approaches for solving…

Biological and social systems are structured at multiple scales, and the incentives of individuals who interact in a group may diverge from the collective incentive of the group as a whole. Mechanisms to resolve this tension are responsible…

Reliable models of the thermodynamic properties of materials are critical for industrially relevant applications that require a good understanding of equilibrium phase diagrams, thermal and chemical transport, and microstructure evolution.…

Big spatio-temporal datasets, available through both open and administrative data sources, offer significant potential for social science research. The magnitude of the data allows for increased resolution and analysis at individual level.…

We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…

Real-world optimisation problems are often dynamic. Previously good solutions must be updated or replaced due to changes in objectives and constraints. It is often claimed that evolutionary algorithms are particularly suitable for dynamic…

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations, and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be…

With the advent of high-performance computing, Bayesian methods are increasingly popular tools for the quantification of uncertainty throughout science and industry. Since these methods impact the making of sometimes critical decisions in…

In this paper we develop a likelihood-free approach for population calibration, which involves finding distributions of model parameters when fed through the model produces a set of outputs that matches available population data. Unlike…

The ability to identify and resolve uncertainty is crucial for the robustness of a dialogue system. Indeed, this has been confirmed empirically on systems that utilise Bayesian approaches to dialogue belief tracking. However, such systems…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…