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This paper introduces a Monte Carlo method for maximum likelihood inference in the context of discretely observed diffusion processes. The method gives unbiased and a.s.\@ continuous estimators of the likelihood function for a family of…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-03-03 Alexandros Beskos , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

In many complex statistical models maximum likelihood estimators cannot be calculated. In the paper we solve this problem using Markov chain Monte Carlo approximation of the true likelihood. In the main result we prove asymptotic normality…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-08-09 Błażej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Wojciech Rejchel

We describe Monte Carlo approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants and explanatory variables. We consider both sources of randomness (due to the initial sample and to Monte Carlo…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-12-08 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Jan Palczewski , Wojciech Rejchel

We construct Monte Carlo methods for the $L^2$-approximation in Hilbert spaces of multivariate functions sampling no more than $n$ function values of the target function. Their errors catch up with the rate of convergence and the…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-03-16 David Krieg

Empirical economic research frequently applies maximum likelihood estimation in cases where the likelihood function is analytically intractable. Most of the theoretical literature focuses on maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimators,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-08-13 Michael Griebel , Florian Heiss , Jens Oettershagen , Constantin Weiser

The methods of statistical physics are widely used for modelling complex networks. Building on the recently proposed Equilibrium Expectation approach, we derive a simple and efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-02-12 Alexander Borisenko , Maksym Byshkin , Alessandro Lomi

We study maximum likelihood estimation for the statistical model for undirected random graphs, known as the $\beta$-model, in which the degree sequences are minimal sufficient statistics. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions, based…

其他统计学 · 统计学 2013-06-19 Alessandro Rinaldo , Sonja Petrović , Stephen E. Fienberg

In the missing data literature, the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) is celebrated for its ignorability property under missing at random (MAR) data. However, its sensitivity to misspecification of the (complete) data model, even under…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Jeffrey Näf

For basic machine learning problems, expected error is used to evaluate model performance. Since the distribution of data is usually unknown, we can make simple hypothesis that the data are sampled independently and identically distributed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-01 Xuli Shen , Qing Xu , Xiangyang Xue

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is widely used in statistics. The h-likelihood has been proposed as an extension of Fisher's likelihood to statistical models including unobserved latent variables of recent interest. Its advantage is that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-21 Jeongseop Han , Youngjo Lee , Jae Kwang Kim

We describe an embarrassingly parallel, anytime Monte Carlo method for likelihood-free models. The algorithm starts with the view that the stochasticity of the pseudo-samples generated by the simulator can be controlled externally by a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-12-03 Edward Meeds , Max Welling

We propose a novel targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for quantiles in semiparametric missing data models. Our proposed estimator is locally efficient, $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal, and doubly robust, under…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-08-23 Iván Díaz

Monte Carlo methods to evaluate and maximize the likelihood function enable the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, facilitating scientific investigation using models for which the likelihood function is intractable.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-13 Edward L. Ionides , Carles Breto , Joonha Park , Richard A. Smith , Aaron A. King

For a multinomial distribution, suppose that we have prior knowledge of the sum of the probabilities of some categories. This allows us to construct a submodel in a full (i.e., no-restriction) model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-06-07 Yo Sheena

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-09-07 David J. Warne , Thomas P. Prescott , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

In this paper, we study the log-likelihood function and Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) for the matrix normal model for both real and complex models. We describe the exact number of samples needed to achieve (almost surely) three…

表示论 · 数学 2020-07-21 Harm Derksen , Visu Makam

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{\'e}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-11-05 Song Liu , Takafumi Kanamori , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Yu Chen

The EM algorithm is a powerful tool for maximum likelihood estimation with missing data. In practice, the calculations required for the EM algorithm are often intractable. We review numerous methods to circumvent this intractability, all of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-01-03 William Ruth

The missing data problem has been broadly studied in the last few decades and has various applications in different areas such as statistics or bioinformatics. Even though many methods have been developed to tackle this challenge, most of…

This paper develops a unified estimation framework, the Maximum Ideal Likelihood Estimation (MILE), for general parametric models with latent variables. Unlike traditional approaches relying on the marginal likelihood of the observed data,…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-10-08 Yizhou Cai , Ting Fung Ma
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