相关论文: A Bayesian Framework for Combining Valuation Estim…

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

Incorporation of expert information in inference or decision settings is often important, especially in cases where data are unavailable, costly or unreliable. One approach is to elicit prior quantiles from an expert and then to fit these…

A common approach to aggregate classification estimates in an ensemble of decision trees is to either use voting or to average the probabilities for each class. The latter takes uncertainty into account, but not the reliability of the…

We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically…

A maximum likelihood method is used to deal with the combined estimation of multi-measurements of a branching ratio, where each result can be presented as an upper limit. The joint likelihood function is constructed using observed spectra…

As organisations increasingly recognise data as a strategic resource, they face the challenge of translating informational assets into measurable business value. Existing valuation approaches remain fragmented, often separating economic,…

Recent work in cognitive science has uncovered a diversity of explanatory values, or dimensions along which we judge explanations as better or worse. We propose a Bayesian account of how these values fit together to guide explanation. The…

One of the biggest challenges of value-based decision-making is dealing with the subjective nature of values. The relative importance of a value for a particular decision varies between individuals, and people may also have different…

A specific implementation of Bayesian model averaging has recently been suggested as a method for the calibration of ensemble temperature forecasts. We point out the similarities between this new approach and an earlier method known as…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

In model development, model calibration and validation play complementary roles toward learning reliable models. In this article, we expand the Bayesian Validation Metric framework to a general calibration and validation framework by…

A method for aggregation of expert estimates in small groups is proposed. The method is based on combinatorial approach to decomposition of pair-wise comparison matrices and to processing of expert data. It also uses the basic principles of…

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

We aim to make inferences about a smooth, finite-dimensional parameter by fusing data from multiple sources together. Previous works have studied the estimation of a variety of parameters in similar data fusion settings, including in the…

The method of model averaging has become an important tool to deal with model uncertainty, for example in situations where a large amount of different theories exist, as are common in economics. Model averaging is a natural and formal…

Multiple testing of a single hypothesis and testing multiple hypotheses are usually done in terms of p-values. In this paper we replace p-values with their natural competitor, e-values, which are closely related to betting, Bayes factors,…

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the…

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse, rapidly changing, or unavailable, statistical models may not be able to…

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

Bayesian optimization is an effective method to efficiently optimize unknown objective functions with high evaluation costs. Traditional Bayesian optimization algorithms select one point per iteration for single objective function, whereas…